Football · Malawi Super League · 09/08, 14:30
Prediction: Big Bullets vs Chitipa United
Team pages: Big Bullets · Chitipa United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.08Total
Big Bullets1.51
Chitipa United0.58
1X2
Big Bullets
Draw
Chitipa United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 65%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Big Bullets
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Chitipa United
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Big Bullets
5–1
Chitipa United
(6 last)
- Chitipa United0-2Big Bullets
- Big Bullets3-0Chitipa United
- Big Bullets4-2Chitipa United
- Chitipa United1-0Big Bullets
- Chitipa United0-2Big Bullets
- Chitipa United0-2Big Bullets
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Big Bullets 1542 · Chitipa United 1497
| Big Bullets | Draw | Chitipa United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | 60% | 26% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Big Bullets (rating 1542 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Big Bullets: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Big Bullets | Chitipa United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 4.8 | 1.9 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 3.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Big Bullets 5–0–1 Chitipa United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/25 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 18/05/25 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 22/09/24 Malawi Super League | Big Bullets | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Chitipa United |
| 03/06/23 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Big Bullets |
| 20/08/22 Malawi Challenge Cup | Chitipa United | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Big Bullets |
| 06/12/20 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Big Bullets |
Standings · Malawi Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blue Eagles | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Mighty Wanderers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 | 7 | 22 |
| 3 | Silver Strikers | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 22 |
| 4 | Big Bullets | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Masters FC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 17 |
| 6 | Ekhaya FC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Chitipa United | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 16 |
| 8 | Moyale Barracks | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Red Lions | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 10 | Mitundu Baptist FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 15 |
| 11 | MAFCO | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 12 | Karonga United | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 13 | Civil Service Utd | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 11 |
| 14 | Dedza Dynamos | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 11 |
| 15 | Kamuzu Barracks | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 10 |
| 16 | Creck SC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Big Bullets | Chitipa United |
|---|---|---|
| Dedza Dynamos | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Ekhaya FC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Kamuzu Barracks | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Moyale Barracks | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Blue Eagles | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 1 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Chitipa United (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Big Bullets
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 04/07 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 29/06 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Chitipa United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 27/06 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Big Bullets vs Chitipa United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Big Bullets win (59%). Probabilities: Big Bullets 59%, draw 27%, Chitipa United 13%.
How many goals are expected in Big Bullets vs Chitipa United?
The model expects 2.08 goals (Big Bullets 1.51 · Chitipa United 0.58), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Big Bullets vs Chitipa United?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.