Football · Malawi Super League · 08/08, 14:30

Prediction: Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers

Team pages: Moyale Barracks · Mighty Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Moyale Barracks0.75

Mighty Wanderers1.55

1X2

17% 28% 55%

Moyale Barracks Draw Mighty Wanderers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Moyale Barracks 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWDLDW

Mighty Wanderers 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDDWWDD

Head-to-head

Moyale Barracks 1–3–2 Mighty Wanderers (6 last)

Mighty Wanderers6-0Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks1-1Mighty Wanderers
Mighty Wanderers1-2Moyale Barracks
Mighty Wanderers1-1Moyale Barracks
Moyale Barracks0-0Mighty Wanderers
Moyale Barracks0-1Mighty Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Moyale Barracks 1504 · Mighty Wanderers 1571

	Moyale Barracks	Draw	Mighty Wanderers
Our model	17%	28%	55%
Market	17%	28%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1504 vs 1571).
H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Moyale Barracks	Mighty Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	3.8 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.3	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.25

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:29 +1’	5.25	3.25	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Moyale Barracks 1–3–2 Mighty Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	6-0 HT 3-0	Moyale Barracks
26/07/25 Malawi Super League	Moyale Barracks	1-1 HT 0-0	Mighty Wanderers
13/07/24 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	1-2 HT 0-1	Moyale Barracks
08/10/23 Malawi Super League	Mighty Wanderers	1-1 HT 1-0	Moyale Barracks
13/05/23 Malawi Super League	Moyale Barracks	0-0 HT 0-0	Mighty Wanderers
09/04/22 Malawi Super League	Moyale Barracks	0-1 HT 0-1	Mighty Wanderers

Standings · Malawi Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blue Eagles	11	7	1	3	18	12	22
2	Mighty Wanderers	11	6	4	1	21	7	22
3	Silver Strikers	11	6	4	1	19	5	22
4	Big Bullets	11	5	5	1	12	7	20
5	Masters FC	11	5	2	4	14	13	17
6	Ekhaya FC	11	4	4	3	12	7	16
7	Chitipa United	11	5	1	5	9	13	16
8	Moyale Barracks	11	4	4	3	11	12	16
9	Red Lions	11	4	3	4	10	11	15
10	Mitundu Baptist FC	11	4	3	4	10	11	15
11	MAFCO	11	3	3	5	10	12	12
12	Karonga United	11	3	3	5	12	19	12
13	Civil Service Utd	11	3	2	6	6	12	11
14	Dedza Dynamos	11	3	2	6	7	17	11
15	Kamuzu Barracks	11	3	1	7	13	17	10
16	Creck SC	11	1	2	8	7	16	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Moyale Barracks	Mighty Wanderers
Civil Service Utd	1-0 W	2-0 W
Masters FC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Blue Eagles	0-1 L	1-1 D
Karonga United	0-0 D	4-1 W
Creck SC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Ekhaya FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Chitipa United	3-2 W	4-0 W
Silver Strikers	1-4 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mighty Wanderers (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Moyale Barracks

LWLWDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	Masters FC Malawi Super League	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
04/07	Blue Eagles Malawi Super League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
28/06	Karonga United Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
21/06	Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/05	Big Bullets Malawi Super League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
23/05	Creck SC Malawi Super League	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
16/05	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
09/05	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
02/05	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-1	1-4	4	0	L

Mighty Wanderers

DWWWDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Blue Eagles Malawi Top 8 Cup	1-1	1-1	12	2	D
26/07	Masters FC Malawi Super League	1-1	1-1	12	1	D
18/07	Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
05/07	MAFCO Malawi Super League	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
28/06	Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
20/06	Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
14/06	Creck SC Malawi Top 8 Cup	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
31/05	Chitipa United Malawi Super League	3-0	4-0	3	5	W
27/05	Karonga United Malawi Super League	3-1	4-1	10	2	W
24/05	Silver Strikers Malawi Super League	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mighty Wanderers win (55%). Probabilities: Moyale Barracks 17%, draw 28%, Mighty Wanderers 55%.

How many goals are expected in Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Moyale Barracks 0.75 · Mighty Wanderers 1.55), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Moyale Barracks vs Mighty Wanderers?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.