Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 08/08, 12:00

Prediction: Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK

Team pages: Marupes SC · Leevon PPK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Marupes SC1.13

Leevon PPK1.76

1X2

24% 24% 52%

Marupes SC Draw Leevon PPK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Marupes SC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLLWL

Leevon PPK 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Marupes SC 2–2–1 Leevon PPK (5 last)

Leevon PPK0-0Marupes SC
Leevon PPK0-0Marupes SC
Marupes SC1-0Leevon PPK
Marupes SC1-0Leevon PPK
Leevon PPK4-2Marupes SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Marupes SC 1475 · Leevon PPK 1592

	Marupes SC	Draw	Leevon PPK
Our model	23%	26%	51%
Market	25%	22%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leevon PPK (rating 1475 vs 1592).
H2H favours Marupes SC: 2-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Marupes SC	Leevon PPK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.9 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.60

X4.00

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.85

2 (-0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.43 ★
X	4.00 → 3.90▼	Bet365 3.90
2	1.70 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.81

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:02 +5’	3.60	4.00	1.70
05:09 +14’	3.25▼	3.90▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:59 +1’	3.52	3.59	1.77
05:23	3.43▼	3.56▼	1.81▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Marupes SC 2–2–1 Leevon PPK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	0-0 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
19/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	0-0 HT 0-0	Marupes SC
14/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Leevon PPK
07/09/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Marupes SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Leevon PPK
20/04/24 Latvia 1. Liga	Leevon PPK	4-2 HT 2-1	Marupes SC

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Valmiera FC	15	12	2	1	40	13	38
2	Metta/LU	15	12	2	1	57	13	38
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	15	10	3	2	26	18	33
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	15	9	5	1	30	13	32
5	JDFS Alberts	15	7	4	4	30	23	25
6	Marupes SC	15	7	1	7	26	24	22
7	Riga FC II	15	6	2	7	23	28	20
8	SK Super Nova II	15	5	5	5	21	23	20
9	Skanstes SK	15	5	1	9	25	31	16
10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	15	3	3	9	19	41	12
11	RFS II	15	3	3	9	21	33	12
12	JFK Ventspils	15	2	5	8	18	26	11
13	FK Smiltene/BJSS	15	2	4	9	18	39	10
14	Rezeknes FA	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Marupes SC	Leevon PPK
Skanstes SK	2-4 L	2-1 W
Rezeknes FA	2-1 W	2-0 W
FK Smiltene/BJSS	2-1 W	0-0 D
JFK Ventspils	1-2 L	2-1 W
RFS II	1-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Leevon PPK (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Marupes SC

LWLDLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	5	2	L
25/07	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-4	2	4	L
12/07	SC Grobinas Latvia Cup	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
04/07	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	5	W
27/06	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
19/06	FK Aliance Latvia Cup	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/06	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Jfc Jelgava Latvia Cup	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
23/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	1-4	6	4	L

Leevon PPK

WWWDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
16/05	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	12	7	W
10/05	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	3-2	9	8	W
02/05	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
26/04	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-2	3-2	11	7	W
18/04	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
12/04	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
28/03	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
22/03	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
08/11	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leevon PPK win (52%). Probabilities: Marupes SC 24%, draw 24%, Leevon PPK 52%.

How many goals are expected in Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Marupes SC 1.13 · Leevon PPK 1.76), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Marupes SC vs Leevon PPK?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.