Football · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana · 16/08, 20:00

Prediction: Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos

Team pages: Villa San Carlos · Defensores Unidos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Villa San Carlos1.14

Defensores Unidos0.89

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Villa San Carlos Draw Defensores Unidos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Villa San Carlos 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDLLWDW

Defensores Unidos 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLDDLL

Head-to-head

Villa San Carlos 2–2–2 Defensores Unidos (6 last)

Defensores Unidos2-0Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos0-0Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos2-1Villa San Carlos
Villa San Carlos1-0Defensores Unidos
Defensores Unidos1-1Villa San Carlos
Defensores Unidos1-2Villa San Carlos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Villa San Carlos 1508 · Defensores Unidos 1438

	Villa San Carlos	Draw	Defensores Unidos
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Villa San Carlos (rating 1508 vs 1438).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Villa San Carlos	Defensores Unidos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.88

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:31 +5’	2.20	2.88	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Villa San Carlos 2–2–2 Defensores Unidos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-0 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
06/11/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	0-0 HT 0-0	Defensores Unidos
30/10/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	2-1 HT 1-0	Villa San Carlos
20/08/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Villa San Carlos	1-0 HT 1-0	Defensores Unidos
23/04/22 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-1 HT 0-0	Villa San Carlos
13/09/21 Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	Defensores Unidos	1-2 HT 1-1	Villa San Carlos

Standings · Argentina Primera B Metropolitana

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Camioneros	29	15	9	5	35	18	54
2	Excursionistas	29	15	8	6	40	20	53
3	Arsenal de Sarandi	29	14	11	4	39	21	53
4	Talleres Remedios	29	15	8	6	32	15	53
5	Villa Dalmine	29	14	10	5	32	16	52
6	Sportivo Italiano	29	13	10	6	32	22	49
7	Real Pilar	29	12	8	9	33	31	44
8	Deportivo Laferrere	29	11	9	9	33	34	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	32	33	41
10	Club Comunicaciones	29	10	9	10	31	29	39
11	Argentino Merlo	29	10	8	11	29	29	38
12	Deportivo Merlo	29	9	10	10	33	45	37
13	CS Dock Sud	29	8	12	9	32	27	36
14	San Martin De Burzaco	29	8	12	9	28	30	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	25	28	34
16	Deportivo Liniers	29	7	11	11	21	29	32
17	CA Brown de Adrogue	29	7	10	12	19	30	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	28	35	29
19	CSD Flandria	29	7	7	15	23	36	28
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	14	24	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	24	35	26
22	CA Ituzaingo	29	1	9	19	18	46	12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Villa San Carlos	Defensores Unidos
Deportivo Liniers	1-1 D	2-3 L
Real Pilar	1-1 D	1-2 L
UAI Urquiza	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Villa San Carlos (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Villa San Carlos

DDDWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Club Comunicaciones Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/08	CS Dock Sud Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	1-1	8	3	D
26/07	Deportivo Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
18/07	Atletico Camioneros Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
14/07	Sportivo Italiano Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
10/07	San Martin De Burzaco Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
04/07	CA Ituzaingo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
28/06	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
20/06	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
13/06	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Defensores Unidos

DLLDLLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Deportivo Liniers Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	2-3	6	7	L
01/08	Real Pilar Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
25/07	UAI Urquiza Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
18/07	Villa Dalmine Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
14/07	Excursionistas Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-2	7	4	L
10/07	Arsenal de Sarandi Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
05/07	Argentino Merlo Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
27/06	Talleres Remedios Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
20/06	Deportivo Laferrere Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
13/06	CA Brown de Adrogue Argentina Primera B Metropolitana	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Villa San Carlos win (41%). Probabilities: Villa San Carlos 41%, draw 32%, Defensores Unidos 27%.

How many goals are expected in Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Villa San Carlos 1.14 · Defensores Unidos 0.89), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Villa San Carlos vs Defensores Unidos?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.