Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women · 12/09, 19:00
Prediction: Sporting (W) vs Vitoria SC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Sporting (W)1.99
Vitoria SC (W)0.45
1X2
Sporting (W)
Draw
Vitoria SC (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Vitoria SC (W)
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting (W)
0–2–0
Vitoria SC (W)
(2 last)
- Vitoria SC (W)0-0Sporting (W)
- Sporting (W)1-1Vitoria SC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting (W) 1565 · Vitoria SC (W) 1472
| Sporting (W) | Draw | Vitoria SC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 74% | 20% | 6% |
| Market | 75% | 16% | 8% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (W) (rating 1565 vs 1472).
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting (W) | Vitoria SC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.9 | 1.2 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.2 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting (W) 0–2–0 Vitoria SC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Vitoria SC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sporting (W) |
| 04/10/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Vitoria SC (W) |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maritimo (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC Porto (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Racing Power (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rio Ave (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Braga (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Torreense (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benfica (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sporting (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vitoria SC (W) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting (W) | Vitoria SC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Power (W) | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Benfica (W) | 1-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Rio Ave (W) | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Braga (W) | 3-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Torreense (W) | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Maritimo (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Valadares Gaia FC (W) | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| SF Damaiense (W) | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 4 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 22/02 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/02 | SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/01 | Vitoria SC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 11/01 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Vitoria SC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 03/04 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/03 | SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 13/03 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 21/02 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 08/02 | Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-2 | 1-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/01 | Sporting (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 10/01 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting (W) vs Vitoria SC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting (W) win (75%). Probabilities: Sporting (W) 75%, draw 18%, Vitoria SC (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting (W) vs Vitoria SC (W)?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Sporting (W) 1.99 · Vitoria SC (W) 0.45), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting (W) vs Vitoria SC (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.