Football · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women · 18/09, 19:30
Prediction: Sporting (W) vs Maritimo (W)
Team pages: Sporting (W) · Maritimo (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Sporting (W)2.58
Maritimo (W)0.58
1X2
Sporting (W)
Draw
Maritimo (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sporting (W)
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Maritimo (W)
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sporting (W)
6–0
Maritimo (W)
(6 last)
- Sporting (W)1-0Maritimo (W)
- Maritimo (W)0-4Sporting (W)
- Maritimo (W)0-3Sporting (W)
- Sporting (W)3-0Maritimo (W)
- Sporting (W)3-0Maritimo (W)
- Maritimo (W)0-7Sporting (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sporting (W) 1573 · Maritimo (W) 1423
| Sporting (W) | Draw | Maritimo (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 80% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 90% | 7% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sporting (W) (rating 1573 vs 1423).
- H2H favours Sporting (W): 6-0-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sporting (W) | Maritimo (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.5 | 1.5 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting (W) 6–0–0 Maritimo (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Maritimo (W) |
| 11/10/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Maritimo (W) | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Sporting (W) |
| 11/05/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Maritimo (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Sporting (W) |
| 15/02/25 Portugal Cup Women | Sporting (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Maritimo (W) |
| 05/01/25 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Sporting (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Maritimo (W) |
| 27/04/24 Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women | Maritimo (W) | 0-7 HT 0-3 | Sporting (W) |
Standings · Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Braga (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Torreense (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Benfica (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | FC Porto (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Sporting (W) | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 7 | Vitoria SC (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Racing Power (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 8 | Rio Ave (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 | Maritimo (W) | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sporting (W) | Maritimo (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitoria SC (W) | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Racing Power (W) | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Benfica (W) | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Rio Ave (W) | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Braga (W) | 3-1 W | 0-5 L |
| Torreense (W) | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Valadares Gaia FC (W) | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| SF Damaiense (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Sporting (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sporting (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Vitoria SC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 10/05 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 01/05 | Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-2 | 1-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/04 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 15/03 | Maritimo (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 22/02 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 06/02 | SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/01 | Vitoria SC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
Maritimo (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Valadares Gaia FC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | SF Damaiense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Vitoria SC (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Racing Power (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 22/03 | Benfica (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 15/03 | Sporting (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 22/02 | Braga (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/02 | Torreense (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/01 | Rio Ave (W) Portugal Campeonato Nacional Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sporting (W) vs Maritimo (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sporting (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Sporting (W) 85%, draw 11%, Maritimo (W) 4%.
How many goals are expected in Sporting (W) vs Maritimo (W)?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Sporting (W) 2.58 · Maritimo (W) 0.58), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Sporting (W) vs Maritimo (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.