Football · England FA WSL 2 · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Sunderland (W) vs Southampton (W)

Team pages: Sunderland (W) · Southampton (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Sunderland (W)1.38

Southampton (W)1.09

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Sunderland (W) Draw Southampton (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sunderland (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWDLLLWW

Southampton (W) 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Sunderland (W) 3–1–2 Southampton (W) (6 last)

Sunderland (W)1-0Southampton (W)
Southampton (W)1-1Sunderland (W)
Southampton (W)0-2Sunderland (W)
Sunderland (W)0-3Southampton (W)
Sunderland (W)1-0Southampton (W)
Sunderland (W)0-2Southampton (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sunderland (W) 1518 · Southampton (W) 1540

	Sunderland (W)	Draw	Southampton (W)
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sunderland (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sunderland (W)	Southampton (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	3.3 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.05▼	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	2.40 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:59 +8’	2.50	3.40	2.40
05:12 +22’	2.05▼	3.50▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +40’	2.02	3.64	2.99

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sunderland (W) 3–1–2 Southampton (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 England FA WSL 2	Sunderland (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Southampton (W)
28/09/25 England FA WSL 2	Southampton (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Sunderland (W)
19/01/25 England Championship Women	Southampton (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Sunderland (W)
15/09/24 England Championship Women	Sunderland (W)	0-3 HT 0-0	Southampton (W)
03/03/24 England Championship Women	Sunderland (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Southampton (W)
14/01/24 England FA Cup Women	Sunderland (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	Southampton (W)

Standings · England FA WSL 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sunderland (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Wolverhampton (W)	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
3	Leicester (W)	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Newcastle (W)	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Southampton (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Nottm Forest (W)	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
7	Watford (W)	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	Ipswich Town (W)	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Burnley (W)	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
10	Sheff Utd (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
11	Durham (W)	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
12	Bristol City (W)	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sunderland (W)	Southampton (W)
Bristol City (W)	4-1 W	2-0 W
Ipswich Town (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Birmingham (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Newcastle (W)	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sheff Utd (W)	2-2 D	5-2 W
Charlton (W)	0-1 L	2-2 D
Nottm Forest (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Southampton (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sunderland (W)

DLDWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Burnley (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
06/09	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
02/05	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
26/04	Crystal Palace (W) England FA WSL 2	0-2	1-2	3	2	L
01/04	Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
29/03	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/03	Portsmouth (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
18/03	Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
15/03	Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
11/03	Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Southampton (W)

LWLDWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-0	9	6	D
06/09	Durham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	3-1	9	2	W
02/05	Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2	2-0	3-0	6	3	W
26/04	Charlton (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
03/04	Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2	2-1	5-2	8	3	W
28/03	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	2-1	2	2	W
22/03	Durham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
15/03	Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
15/02	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
08/02	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	0-2	1-2	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sunderland (W) vs Southampton (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sunderland (W) win (43%). Probabilities: Sunderland (W) 43%, draw 27%, Southampton (W) 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sunderland (W) vs Southampton (W)?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Sunderland (W) 1.38 · Southampton (W) 1.09), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sunderland (W) vs Southampton (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.