Football · England FA WSL 2 · 20/09, 15:00

Prediction: Newcastle (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)

Team pages: Newcastle (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Newcastle (W)2.19

Sheff Utd (W)0.7

1X2

71% 19% 10%

Newcastle (W) Draw Sheff Utd (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle (W) 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDDDLLWW

Sheff Utd (W) 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DDLWLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Newcastle (W) 1–3–0 Sheff Utd (W) (4 last)

Sheff Utd (W)1-1Newcastle (W)
Newcastle (W)1-1Sheff Utd (W)
Sheff Utd (W)1-1Newcastle (W)
Newcastle (W)2-0Sheff Utd (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newcastle (W) 1516 · Sheff Utd (W) 1412

	Newcastle (W)	Draw	Sheff Utd (W)
Our model	71%	20%	10%
Market	72%	18%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newcastle (W) (rating 1516 vs 1412).
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle (W)	Sheff Utd (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.6	1.1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	2.4 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.00

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.31 ★
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:03 +3’	1.25	5.00	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +21’	1.25	5.31	8.31

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle (W) 1–3–0 Sheff Utd (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England FA WSL 2	Sheff Utd (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Newcastle (W)
14/09/25 England FA WSL 2	Newcastle (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Sheff Utd (W)
19/01/25 England Championship Women	Sheff Utd (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Newcastle (W)
22/09/24 England Championship Women	Newcastle (W)	2-0 HT 2-0	Sheff Utd (W)

Standings · England FA WSL 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sunderland (W)	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Wolverhampton (W)	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
3	Leicester (W)	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Newcastle (W)	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
5	Southampton (W)	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Nottm Forest (W)	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
7	Watford (W)	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
8	Ipswich Town (W)	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
9	Burnley (W)	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
10	Sheff Utd (W)	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
11	Durham (W)	2	0	0	2	3	7	0
12	Bristol City (W)	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle (W)	Sheff Utd (W)
Bristol City (W)	1-0 W	0-4 L
Wolverhampton (W)	2-0 W	1-3 L
Durham (W)	0-1 L	1-2 L
Sunderland (W)	1-1 D	2-2 D
Birmingham (W)	2-0 W	1-2 L
Portsmouth (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Newcastle (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle (W)

WDWDDDLLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
06/09	Wolverhampton (W) England FA WSL 2	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
02/05	Durham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	0-1	4	0	L
26/04	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
05/04	Nottm Forest (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
29/03	Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
22/03	Crystal Palace (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
18/03	Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/03	Sheff Utd (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
15/02	Portsmouth (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-0	0	3	W

Sheff Utd (W)

DDLWLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Wolverhampton (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	1-3	8	2	L
06/09	Leicester (W) England FA WSL 2	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
02/05	Bristol City (W) England FA WSL 2	0-2	0-4	2	0	L
26/04	Durham (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
22/04	Ipswich Town (W) England FA WSL 2	0-1	1-4	7	4	L
03/04	Southampton (W) England FA WSL 2	1-2	2-5	3	3	L
28/03	Portsmouth (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
22/03	Birmingham (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-2	3	0	L
18/03	Sunderland (W) England FA WSL 2	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
14/03	Newcastle (W) England FA WSL 2	1-1	1-1	6	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle (W) win (71%). Probabilities: Newcastle (W) 71%, draw 19%, Sheff Utd (W) 10%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Newcastle (W) 2.19 · Sheff Utd (W) 0.7), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.