Football · Colombia Primera B · 06/08, 23:30
Prediction: Bogota FC vs Itagui Leones
Team pages: Bogota FC · Itagui Leones
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.79Total
Bogota FC1.26
Itagui Leones0.53
1X2
Bogota FC
Draw
Itagui Leones
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Bogota FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Itagui Leones
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bogota FC
0–4–2
Itagui Leones
(6 last)
- Itagui Leones1-1Bogota FC
- Bogota FC0-1Itagui Leones
- Bogota FC0-0Itagui Leones
- Itagui Leones3-0Bogota FC
- Itagui Leones1-1Bogota FC
- Bogota FC2-2Itagui Leones
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bogota FC 1471 · Itagui Leones 1512
| Bogota FC | Draw | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 32% | 14% |
| Market | 56% | 27% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Itagui Leones (rating 1471 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Itagui Leones: 2-4-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bogota FC | Itagui Leones | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.2 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bogota FC 0–4–2 Itagui Leones
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/26 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Bogota FC |
| 25/10/25 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 03/06/25 Colombia Cup | Bogota FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Itagui Leones |
| 17/05/25 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Bogota FC |
| 28/09/24 Colombia Primera B | Itagui Leones | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Bogota FC |
| 27/04/24 Colombia Primera B | Bogota FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Itagui Leones |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Patriotas FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Independiente Yumbo | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Envigado FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Itagui Leones | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Barranquilla FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | Deportes Quindio | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 10 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 12 | Tigres FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Atletico Cali FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 15 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Real San Andres | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bogota FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 29/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 21/05 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 28/04 | Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Itagui Leones
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 30/05 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 12/05 | Orsomarso Colombia Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 08/05 | Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Cup |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 13/04 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/04 | Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 25/03 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bogota FC vs Itagui Leones?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bogota FC win (55%). Probabilities: Bogota FC 55%, draw 29%, Itagui Leones 16%.
How many goals are expected in Bogota FC vs Itagui Leones?
The model expects 1.79 goals (Bogota FC 1.26 · Itagui Leones 0.53), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Bogota FC vs Itagui Leones?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.