Football · Colombia Primera B · 07/08, 03:10

Prediction: Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo

Team pages: Real Cartagena · Independiente Yumbo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Real Cartagena1.68

Independiente Yumbo0.86

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Real Cartagena Draw Independiente Yumbo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Real Cartagena 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDLWDD

Independiente Yumbo 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLLLWD

Head-to-head

Real Cartagena 0–1–0 Independiente Yumbo (1 last)

Independiente Yumbo1-1Real Cartagena

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Cartagena 1523 · Independiente Yumbo 1462

	Real Cartagena	Draw	Independiente Yumbo
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Cartagena (rating 1523 vs 1462).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Cartagena	Independiente Yumbo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.2	2.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.67▲	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:04 +37’	1.61	3.50	5.00
02:35 +2’	1.67▲	3.60▲	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Cartagena 0–1–0 Independiente Yumbo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Independiente Yumbo	1-1 HT 0-0	Real Cartagena

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	2	1	1	0	6	2	4
2	Patriotas FC	2	1	1	0	5	3	4
3	Independiente Yumbo	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
4	Envigado FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
4	Itagui Leones	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
6	Boca Juniors De Cali	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Bogota FC	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
6	Orsomarso	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
9	Barranquilla FC	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Deportes Quindio	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
10	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
12	Tigres FC	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
12	Union Magdalena	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
14	Atletico Cali FC	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
16	Real San Andres	2	0	1	1	3	7	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Cartagena	Independiente Yumbo
Real Soacha Cundinamarca	1-1 D	0-2 L
Envigado FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Union Magdalena	0-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Real Cartagena

WLWWLDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
30/07	America de Cali Colombia Cup	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
26/07	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	3-1	5-1	5	3	W
22/07	America de Cali Colombia Cup	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
29/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
26/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-3	6	4	L
22/05	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/05	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
12/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-3	1	6	L
09/05	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	2-1	2-1	2	8	W

Independiente Yumbo

WLDDDLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	12	5	D
28/07	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	2-0	2-0	7	6	W
21/05	Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Cup	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
18/05	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Cup	1-1	1-4	5	7	L
13/05	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Cup	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
08/05	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Cup	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
18/04	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	9	9	D
07/04	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
30/03	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
27/03	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Cartagena win (56%). Probabilities: Real Cartagena 56%, draw 26%, Independiente Yumbo 18%.

How many goals are expected in Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Real Cartagena 1.68 · Independiente Yumbo 0.86), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Cartagena vs Independiente Yumbo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.