Football · Hungary NB III · 12/08, 17:30

Prediction: Csepel FC vs ESMTK

Team pages: Csepel FC · ESMTK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Csepel FC1.13

ESMTK2.16

1X2

18% 22% 60%

Csepel FC Draw ESMTK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Csepel FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWDLWD

ESMTK 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Csepel FC 3–1 ESMTK (4 last)

ESMTK1-2Csepel FC
Csepel FC2-0ESMTK
Csepel FC2-3ESMTK
ESMTK0-2Csepel FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Csepel FC 1544 · ESMTK 1558

	Csepel FC	Draw	ESMTK
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	18%	22%	60%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Csepel FC: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Csepel FC	ESMTK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.7	3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.00

X4.10

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +6’	5.00	4.10	1.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Csepel FC 3–0–1 ESMTK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/11/25 Hungary NB III	ESMTK	1-2 HT 0-1	Csepel FC
06/08/25 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	2-0 HT 1-0	ESMTK
16/11/24 Hungary NB III	Csepel FC	2-3 HT 1-1	ESMTK
25/01/17 Europe Friendlies	ESMTK	0-2 HT 0-1	Csepel FC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	2	2	0	0	10	0	6
2	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	2	2	0	0	7	3	6
3	III Keruleti TUE	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
4	Ujpest II	2	1	1	0	8	2	4
5	Szolnoki Mav FC	2	1	1	0	7	4	4
6	ESMTK	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	FC Dabas	2	1	0	1	3	5	3
8	Vasas SC II	2	0	2	0	3	3	2
9	Bekescsabai Elore SE	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
10	Kispest Honved II	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
10	Szegedi VSE	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
12	Monori SE	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
13	Csepel FC	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
14	Hodmezovasarhelyi	2	0	1	1	2	5	1
15	BKV Elore SC	2	0	0	2	0	8	0
16	Sandorfalvi SK	2	0	0	2	2	12	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Csepel FC	ESMTK
Monori SE	0-0 D	2-1 W
III Keruleti TUE	0-2 L	1-3 L
Kispest Honved II	3-1 W	4-0 W
Gyulai Termal	1-4 L	1-1 D
Szegedi VSE	3-2 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: ESMTK (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Csepel FC

LWWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Monori SE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
01/08	Szepetnek SE Hungary Cup	5-0	7-0	5	3	W
25/07	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
10/07	Kaposvari Rakoczi Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
24/05	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
17/05	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-2	1-4	1	2	L
10/05	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	3-2	1	2	W
03/05	Martfui LSE Hungary NB III	1-2	6-2	5	4	W
26/04	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
19/04	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	5	2	L

ESMTK

WDWWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	2	1	D
26/07	Monori SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
24/05	Tiszafoldvar Hungary NB III	3-0	8-0	6	0	W
17/05	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	9	8	L
10/05	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	0-0	4-0	5	2	W
03/05	Bekescsabai Elore SE II Hungary NB III	0-1	3-1	–	–	W
26/04	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/04	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	4-0	4-0	1	3	W
11/04	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/04	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Csepel FC vs ESMTK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an ESMTK win (60%). Probabilities: Csepel FC 18%, draw 22%, ESMTK 60%.

How many goals are expected in Csepel FC vs ESMTK?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Csepel FC 1.13 · ESMTK 2.16), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Csepel FC vs ESMTK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.