Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 09/08, 15:00

Prediction: Carapegua vs Fernando de la Mora

Team pages: Carapegua · Fernando de la Mora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Carapegua1.56

Fernando de la Mora1.36

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Carapegua Draw Fernando de la Mora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLWLW

Fernando de la Mora 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDWWDD

Head-to-head

Carapegua 3–2–1 Fernando de la Mora (6 last)

Fernando de la Mora0-1Carapegua
Fernando de la Mora3-2Carapegua
Carapegua0-0Fernando de la Mora
Carapegua2-1Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora0-0Carapegua
Carapegua1-0Fernando de la Mora

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1490 · Fernando de la Mora 1507

	Carapegua	Draw	Fernando de la Mora
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Carapegua: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Fernando de la Mora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	2.4 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.38 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.22
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +1’	2.20	3.20	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:29 +1’	2.34	3.05	2.71
04:46	2.05▼	3.19▲	3.10▲
05:59 +1’	2.38▲	3.22▲	2.54▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 3–2–1 Fernando de la Mora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	0-1 HT 0-0	Carapegua
18/07/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	3-2 HT 1-0	Carapegua
14/04/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	0-0 HT 0-0	Fernando de la Mora
09/09/24 Paraguay Cup	Carapegua	2-1 HT 0-1	Fernando de la Mora
21/07/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	0-0 HT 0-0	Carapegua
13/04/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Carapegua	1-0 HT 0-0	Fernando de la Mora

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	18	11	4	3	26	16	37
2	Deportivo Santaní	18	10	3	5	27	16	33
3	General Caballero JLM	17	10	3	4	34	22	33
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	17	9	5	3	27	16	32
5	Sol de America	18	6	10	2	24	16	28
6	Resistencia FC	18	6	7	5	21	22	25
7	Club Atlético Tembetary	17	6	5	6	24	22	23
8	Independiente FBC	18	5	8	5	26	25	23
9	Guairena FC	17	6	5	6	18	20	23
10	Deportivo Capiata	18	5	8	5	24	25	23
11	Carapegua	17	6	4	7	20	29	22
12	Fernando de la Mora	17	5	5	7	19	25	20
13	Paraguari AC	18	5	4	9	18	23	19
14	Tacuary	17	2	9	6	21	27	15
15	Encarnacion FC	18	3	3	12	15	25	12
16	3 de Noviembre	17	0	7	10	13	28	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Fernando de la Mora
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	2-2 D
General Caballero JLM	1-2 L	3-2 W
Guairena FC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Sol de America	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carapegua (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Carapegua

WDLLDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
15/07	Club 4 de Mayo Paraguay Cup	0-0	1-2	10	4	L
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L
06/06	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
31/05	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
25/05	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	2	4	W

Fernando de la Mora

LLLWDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
26/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
21/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
15/07	Atletico Colegiales Paraguay Cup	5-0	11-0	14	3	W
10/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
03/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
27/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	1	8	W
06/06	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-3	4	8	L
30/05	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-3	7	6	L
24/05	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-1	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Fernando de la Mora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (41%). Probabilities: Carapegua 41%, draw 27%, Fernando de la Mora 32%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Fernando de la Mora?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Carapegua 1.56 · Fernando de la Mora 1.36), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Fernando de la Mora?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.