Football · Hungary NB III · 12/08, 17:30

Prediction: BFC Siofok vs MTK Budapest II

Team pages: BFC Siofok · MTK Budapest II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

BFC Siofok1.12

MTK Budapest II1.81

1X2

23% 24% 53%

BFC Siofok Draw MTK Budapest II

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Siofok 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDLWL

MTK Budapest II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWLWW

Head-to-head

BFC Siofok 2–1–1 MTK Budapest II (4 last)

MTK Budapest II0-1BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok1-4MTK Budapest II
MTK Budapest II1-3BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok2-2MTK Budapest II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Siofok 1521 · MTK Budapest II 1575

	BFC Siofok	Draw	MTK Budapest II
Our model	22%	25%	52%
Market	24%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MTK Budapest II (rating 1521 vs 1575).
H2H favours BFC Siofok: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Siofok	MTK Budapest II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.1	2.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.90

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +2’	3.80	3.90	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Siofok 2–1–1 MTK Budapest II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	0-1 HT 0-0	BFC Siofok
17/08/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-4 HT 1-3	MTK Budapest II
02/03/25 Hungary NB III	MTK Budapest II	1-3 HT 0-1	BFC Siofok
11/08/24 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	2-2 HT 1-0	MTK Budapest II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MTK Budapest II	2	2	0	0	12	2	6
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	2	2	0	0	9	1	6
3	Ivancsa	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
4	Pecsi MFC	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	PEAC FC	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
6	Erdi VSE	2	1	1	0	6	4	4
7	Ferencvarosi TC II	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
8	Budafoki MTE	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
9	Majosi SE	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
9	Paksi SE II	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
11	Budaorsi SC	2	0	1	1	3	10	1
12	BFC Siofok	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
13	Sarbogard SE	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
14	Dunaujvaros FC	1	0	0	1	0	3	0
15	Dunaharaszti MTK	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
16	Szekszardi	2	0	0	2	0	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Siofok	MTK Budapest II
PEAC FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
Dombovari FC	5-1 W	2-1 W
Dunaujvaros FC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MTK Budapest II (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

BFC Siofok

DDWWLWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	8	8	L
01/08	Balatonlelle SE Hungary Cup	1-0	5-0	10	4	W
25/07	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
17/05	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	3-1	5-1	–	–	W
10/05	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
03/05	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-1	3-1	1	4	W
26/04	Penzugyor SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/04	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
11/04	Dunaujvaros FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D

MTK Budapest II

WWWWDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	8-0	6	0	W
26/07	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-2	1	3	W
24/05	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
17/05	Dunaujvaros FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
10/05	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
03/05	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	2	9	D
26/04	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
19/04	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	1-0	4-0	7	3	W
11/04	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
05/04	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Siofok vs MTK Budapest II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MTK Budapest II win (53%). Probabilities: BFC Siofok 23%, draw 24%, MTK Budapest II 53%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Siofok vs MTK Budapest II?

The model expects 2.92 goals (BFC Siofok 1.12 · MTK Budapest II 1.81), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Siofok vs MTK Budapest II?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.