Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 06/08, 12:00

Prediction: Western Rage vs Fraser Park

Team pages: Western Rage · Fraser Park

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Western Rage1.78

Fraser Park2.26

1X2

29% 23% 48%

Western Rage Draw Fraser Park

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Western Rage 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWDWLW

Fraser Park 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDLWWWW

Head-to-head

Western Rage 2–1–2 Fraser Park (5 last)

Fraser Park9-0Western Rage
Western Rage5-5Fraser Park
Fraser Park2-4Western Rage
Western Rage5-2Fraser Park
Western Rage1-4Fraser Park

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Western Rage 1496 · Fraser Park 1529

	Western Rage	Draw	Fraser Park
Our model	30%	22%	48%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Western Rage	Fraser Park
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	3.4 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.80

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 06:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	1.91 → 1.90▼	Pinn 2.02 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
06:04 +3’	2.90	4.00	1.91
00:33 +2’	2.88▼	3.90▼	1.95▲
01:34 +17’	2.63▼	3.90	2.10▲
05:48 +6’	2.63	3.90	2.05▼
06:41 +3’	3.10▲	3.80▼	1.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:35	2.61	3.77	2.10
05:54 +1’	2.59▼	3.86▲	2.08▼
06:44	2.73▲	3.79▼	2.02▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Western Rage 2–1–2 Fraser Park

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 2	Fraser Park	9-0 HT 6-0	Western Rage
21/08/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western Rage	5-5 HT 0-2	Fraser Park
10/05/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Fraser Park	2-4 HT 1-2	Western Rage
07/06/24 Australia New South Wales League 2	Western Rage	5-2 HT 4-2	Fraser Park
22/08/17 Australia New South Wales League 3	Western Rage	1-4 HT 1-1	Fraser Park

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mounties Wanderers	23	19	2	2	84	24	59
2	Parramatta Eagles	24	14	3	7	60	34	45
3	Fraser Park	24	12	6	6	45	30	42
4	Bonnyrigg White Eagles	24	12	4	8	44	38	40
5	Dunbar Rovers FC	24	11	5	8	40	31	38
6	Central Coast United FC	23	10	5	8	38	36	35
7	Western Rage	23	10	5	8	45	50	35
8	Sydney University	25	10	4	11	41	37	34
9	South Coast Flame FC	24	8	7	9	30	32	31
10	Hawkesbury City SC	23	9	3	11	42	61	30
11	Nepean FC	24	8	4	12	43	56	28
12	Inner West Hawks	25	8	4	13	36	43	28
13	Gladesville Ryde Magic	25	8	1	16	37	60	25
14	Bankstown United FC	24	6	6	12	28	47	24
15	Camden Tigers SC	25	2	7	16	34	68	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Western Rage	Fraser Park
Gladesville Ryde Magic	2-0 W	2-1 W
Bankstown United FC	0-2 L	1-1 D
Bonnyrigg White Eagles	3-2 W	1-0 W
Sydney University	1-1 D	0-2 L
Inner West Hawks	2-1 W	3-1 W
Mounties Wanderers	1-4 L	1-4 L
Nepean FC	1-2 L	5-4 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fraser Park (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Western Rage

LLWDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/07	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/07	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	3-2	4	5	W
04/07	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
28/06	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
20/06	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
13/06	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/06	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
22/05	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	1-3	1-4	0	2	L
16/05	Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-2	5	7	L

Fraser Park

LDWLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	3-2	13	2	W
24/07	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
17/07	Nepean FC Australia New South Wales League 2	4-0	5-4	3	4	W
10/07	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	3-1	11	5	W
27/06	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
20/06	Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/06	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-4	2	1	L
05/06	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/05	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-1	9	7	D
27/05	Sydney Olympic Australia Cup Qualifying	2-0	2-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Western Rage vs Fraser Park?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Fraser Park win (48%). Probabilities: Western Rage 29%, draw 23%, Fraser Park 48%.

How many goals are expected in Western Rage vs Fraser Park?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Western Rage 1.78 · Fraser Park 2.26), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Western Rage vs Fraser Park?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.