Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 14/08, 12:00

Prediction: Nepean FC vs Hawkesbury City SC

Team pages: Nepean FC · Hawkesbury City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.32Total

Nepean FC1.98

Hawkesbury City SC2.34

1X2

33% 21% 46%

Nepean FC Draw Hawkesbury City SC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Nepean FC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLDLL

Hawkesbury City SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWDDWLLLLL

Head-to-head

Nepean FC 2–1–1 Hawkesbury City SC (4 last)

Hawkesbury City SC3-3Nepean FC
Nepean FC2-4Hawkesbury City SC
Hawkesbury City SC0-4Nepean FC
Nepean FC4-2Hawkesbury City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nepean FC 1412 · Hawkesbury City SC 1460

	Nepean FC	Draw	Hawkesbury City SC
Our model	33%	21%	46%
Market	33%	21%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 4.32 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hawkesbury City SC (rating 1412 vs 1460).
H2H favours Nepean FC: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nepean FC	Hawkesbury City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 3	1.7 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.6	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X4.20

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
08:21 +3’	2.75	4.20	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nepean FC 2–1–1 Hawkesbury City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia New South Wales League 2	Hawkesbury City SC	3-3 HT 1-0	Nepean FC
26/08/25 Australia New South Wales League 2	Nepean FC	2-4 HT 1-3	Hawkesbury City SC
02/06/23 Australia New South Wales League 2	Hawkesbury City SC	0-4 HT 0-3	Nepean FC
17/02/23 Australia New South Wales League 2	Nepean FC	4-2 HT 1-1	Hawkesbury City SC

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mounties Wanderers	24	20	2	2	88	26	62
2	Parramatta Eagles	25	15	3	7	63	35	48
3	Bonnyrigg White Eagles	25	13	4	8	48	38	43
4	Fraser Park	25	12	6	7	46	32	42
5	Dunbar Rovers FC	25	12	5	8	46	31	41
6	Central Coast United FC	24	11	5	8	42	38	38
7	Western Rage	24	11	5	8	47	51	38
8	Sydney University	26	11	4	11	45	38	37
9	South Coast Flame FC	25	8	7	10	31	35	31
10	Hawkesbury City SC	24	9	3	12	44	65	30
11	Nepean FC	25	8	4	13	44	60	28
12	Inner West Hawks	25	8	4	13	36	43	28
13	Gladesville Ryde Magic	26	8	1	17	37	66	25
14	Bankstown United FC	25	6	6	13	30	51	24
15	Camden Tigers SC	26	2	7	17	34	72	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nepean FC	Hawkesbury City SC
Sydney University	1-4 L	0-8 L
Bonnyrigg White Eagles	2-4 L	1-2 L
Camden Tigers SC	2-2 D	2-3 L
Fraser Park	4-5 L	1-1 D
Parramatta Eagles	1-3 L	1-5 L
Gladesville Ryde Magic	2-3 L	4-1 W
Dunbar Rovers FC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Inner West Hawks	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Hawkesbury City SC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nepean FC

DWLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
31/07	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	2-4	6	3	L
25/07	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/07	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	0-4	4-5	3	4	L
03/07	Mounties Wanderers Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
20/06	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	0-2	2-3	4	2	L
12/06	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
06/06	Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/05	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	2-2	5	2	D

Hawkesbury City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-3	2-4	–	–	L
01/08	Camden Tigers SC Australia New South Wales League 2	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
25/07	Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-5	–	–	L
11/07	Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2	0-3	0-8	–	–	L
04/07	Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
27/06	Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
20/06	Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/06	South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
03/06	Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2	1-0	4-1	4	2	W
23/05	Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2	2-0	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nepean FC vs Hawkesbury City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hawkesbury City SC win (46%). Probabilities: Nepean FC 33%, draw 21%, Hawkesbury City SC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Nepean FC vs Hawkesbury City SC?

The model expects 4.32 goals (Nepean FC 1.98 · Hawkesbury City SC 2.34), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nepean FC vs Hawkesbury City SC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.