Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 06/08, 01:00
Prediction: Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers
Team pages: Penarol · Montevideo Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.07Total
Penarol1.38
Montevideo Wanderers0.69
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Montevideo Wanderers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Montevideo Wanderers
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
4–2
Montevideo Wanderers
(6 last)
- Montevideo Wanderers1-0Penarol
- Penarol3-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Penarol2-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers1-2Penarol
- Montevideo Wanderers0-2Penarol
- Montevideo Wanderers2-0Penarol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol 1563 · Montevideo Wanderers 1555
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 30% | 18% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.07 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Penarol: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 1.5 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.4 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 4–0–2 Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 19/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 22/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 19/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Penarol |
| 14/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Penarol |
| 08/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Montevideo Wanderers | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Torque Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 11/07 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | Danubio Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Albion FC Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 27/04 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (54%). Probabilities: Penarol 54%, draw 27%, Montevideo Wanderers 19%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model expects 2.07 goals (Penarol 1.38 · Montevideo Wanderers 0.69), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.