Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 04/08, 00:00

Prediction: Defensor Sporting vs Cerro

Team pages: Defensor Sporting · Cerro

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Defensor Sporting1.26

Cerro0.65

1X2

51% 30% 19%

Defensor Sporting Draw Cerro

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Defensor Sporting 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Cerro 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Defensor Sporting 3–1–2 Cerro (6 last)

Cerro1-0Defensor Sporting
Cerro1-0Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting2-1Cerro
Defensor Sporting3-2Cerro
Cerro1-1Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting5-0Cerro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Defensor Sporting 1433 · Cerro 1478

	Defensor Sporting	Draw	Cerro
Our model	50%	32%	18%
Market	52%	29%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro (rating 1433 vs 1478).
H2H favours Defensor Sporting: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Defensor Sporting	Cerro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.6	1.1 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.4	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.10

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.59 ★
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.73	3.10	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.68	3.59	5.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Defensor Sporting 3–1–2 Cerro

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Uruguay Apertura	Cerro	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensor Sporting
12/10/25 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-0 HT 0-0	Defensor Sporting
23/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Defensor Sporting	2-1 HT 0-0	Cerro
14/04/25 Uruguay Apertura	Defensor Sporting	3-2 HT 2-1	Cerro
07/09/24 Uruguay Clausura	Cerro	1-1 HT 1-0	Defensor Sporting
25/02/24 Uruguay Apertura	Defensor Sporting	5-0 HT 1-0	Cerro

Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	6	4	1	1	9	3	13
2	Cerro Largo	6	3	2	1	7	2	11
3	Cerro	6	3	0	3	5	8	9
4	Liverpool Montevideo	6	2	2	2	5	5	8
5	Central Espanol	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
6	Racing Club de Montevideo	6	1	4	1	3	3	7
7	Boston River	6	1	2	3	5	9	5
8	Defensor Sporting	6	0	3	3	4	8	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Defensor Sporting	Cerro
Liverpool Montevideo	1-2 L	2-1 W
Cerro Largo	1-1 D	0-2 L
Boston River	1-1 D	1-4 L
Racing Club de Montevideo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Penarol	0-2 L	0-1 L
Central Espanol	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Defensor Sporting

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-2	1-2	5	4	L
14/07	Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
04/07	Cruzeiro America Friendlies	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
07/06	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/05	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
24/05	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
17/05	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
10/05	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura	0-1	1-2	5	10	L
05/05	Penarol Uruguay Apertura	0-1	1-1	8	9	D
28/04	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura	0-0	1-0	7	11	W

Cerro

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
12/07	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
07/06	Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/05	Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
24/05	Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
16/05	Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	1-2	1-4	3	5	L
11/05	Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura	0-2	0-4	2	4	L
02/05	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
26/04	Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura	1-2	1-3	1	9	L
19/04	Torque Uruguay Apertura	0-0	1-1	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Defensor Sporting win (51%). Probabilities: Defensor Sporting 51%, draw 30%, Cerro 19%.

How many goals are expected in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Defensor Sporting 1.26 · Cerro 0.65), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Defensor Sporting vs Cerro?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.