Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 01/08, 23:30
Prediction: Penarol vs Cerro Largo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.16Total
Penarol1.36
Cerro Largo0.79
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Cerro Largo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 63%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Cerro Largo
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
3–2–1
Cerro Largo
(6 last)
- Cerro Largo2-3Penarol
- Cerro Largo1-3Penarol
- Cerro Largo1-1Penarol
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Penarol: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 0.8 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 3–2–1 Cerro Largo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
| 27/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Penarol |
| 01/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Cerro Largo | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Penarol |
| 31/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Penarol | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Cerro Largo |
| 17/08/24 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 19/02/24 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerro | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Boston River | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Boston River | 3-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Cerro | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Central Espanol | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Defensor Sporting | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/07 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 02/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 28/05 | Independiente Santa Fe Copa Libertadores |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 22/05 | Corinthians Copa Libertadores |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 16/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 12/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Platense Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/07 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 09/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 12/05 | Penarol Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 20/04 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (49%). Probabilities: Penarol 49%, draw 30%, Cerro Largo 21%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
The model expects 2.16 goals (Penarol 1.36 · Cerro Largo 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.