Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 02/08, 17:00
Prediction: Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.67Total
Racing Club de Montevideo1.14
Boston River0.53
1X2
Racing Club de Montevideo
Draw
Boston River
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Racing Club de Montevideo
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Boston River
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Racing Club de Montevideo
3–2–1
Boston River
(6 last)
- Boston River0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
- Boston River1-0Racing Club de Montevideo
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Boston River
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Boston River
- Racing Club de Montevideo2-0Boston River
- Boston River1-3Racing Club de Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Racing Club de Montevideo 1495 · Boston River 1455
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Draw | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club de Montevideo (rating 1495 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Boston River | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.9 | 2.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.5 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club de Montevideo 3–2–1 Boston River
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana | Boston River | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 13/09/25 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 10/09/25 Uruguay Cup | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Boston River |
| 23/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Boston River |
| 22/03/25 Uruguay Apertura | Boston River | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerro | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Boston River | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Racing Club de Montevideo | Boston River |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro | 0-1 L | 4-1 W |
| Penarol | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Central Espanol | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Defensor Sporting | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Cerro Largo | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Racing Club de Montevideo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Espanol Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Torque Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/04 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Boston River
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 12/07 | Central Espanol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 07/06 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/06 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 27/05 | Sao Paulo Copa Sudamericana |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | O'Higgins Copa Sudamericana |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Millonarios Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Club de Montevideo win (52%). Probabilities: Racing Club de Montevideo 52%, draw 30%, Boston River 18%.
How many goals are expected in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?
The model expects 1.67 goals (Racing Club de Montevideo 1.14 · Boston River 0.53), with a 61% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.