Football · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · 02/08, 20:00
Prediction: Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.44Total
Central Espanol1.04
Liverpool Montevideo1.4
1X2
Central Espanol
Draw
Liverpool Montevideo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Central Espanol
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Liverpool Montevideo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Central Espanol
1–1–2
Liverpool Montevideo
(4 last)
- Liverpool Montevideo3-3Central Espanol
- Central Espanol1-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Central Espanol3-2Liverpool Montevideo
- Liverpool Montevideo3-1Central Espanol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Central Espanol 1497 · Liverpool Montevideo 1499
| Central Espanol | Draw | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Market | 26% | 31% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Liverpool Montevideo: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Central Espanol | Liverpool Montevideo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 2.8 | 1.4 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.7 | 5.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Espanol 1–1–2 Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Central Espanol |
| 01/09/22 Uruguay Cup | Central Espanol | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 21/03/15 Uruguay Segunda | Central Espanol | 3-2 | Liverpool Montevideo |
| 27/09/14 Uruguay Segunda | Liverpool Montevideo | 3-1 | Central Espanol |
Standings · Uruguay Torneo Intermedio · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Liverpool Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 5 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerro | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Boston River | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Central Espanol | Liverpool Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Boston River | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Penarol | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Cerro | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Defensor Sporting | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Central Espanol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 12/07 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 06/06 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 02/06 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 09/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Boston River Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Cerro Uruguay Apertura |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Albion FC Uruguay Apertura |
1-0 | 1-6 | 2 | 4 | L |
Liverpool Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Cerro Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/06 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/06 | Boston River Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 10 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 16/05 | Penarol Uruguay Torneo Intermedio |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/05 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Danubio Uruguay Apertura |
0-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Apertura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 20/04 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Apertura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Liverpool Montevideo win (44%). Probabilities: Central Espanol 26%, draw 30%, Liverpool Montevideo 44%.
How many goals are expected in Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model expects 2.44 goals (Central Espanol 1.04 · Liverpool Montevideo 1.4), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Central Espanol vs Liverpool Montevideo?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.