Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 29/08, 16:00
Prediction: FK Gabala vs Shamakhi FK
Team pages: FK Gabala · Shamakhi FK
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
FK Gabala1.35
Shamakhi FK0.9
1X2
FK Gabala
Draw
Shamakhi FK
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Gabala
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Shamakhi FK
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Gabala
3–2–1
Shamakhi FK
(6 last)
- FK Gabala3-1Shamakhi FK
- Shamakhi FK0-4FK Gabala
- FK Gabala0-1Shamakhi FK
- Shamakhi FK0-0FK Gabala
- FK Gabala2-0Shamakhi FK
- Shamakhi FK1-1FK Gabala
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Gabala 1496 · Shamakhi FK 1457
| FK Gabala | Draw | Shamakhi FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FK Gabala: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Gabala | Shamakhi FK | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.6 | 1.7 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Gabala 3–2–1 Shamakhi FK
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Shamakhi FK |
| 24/01/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 0-4 HT 0-1 | FK Gabala |
| 05/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Shamakhi FK |
| 22/05/23 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Gabala |
| 17/03/23 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Gabala | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Shamakhi FK |
| 14/10/22 Azerbaijan Premier League | Shamakhi FK | 1-1 HT 0-0 | FK Gabala |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Zira IK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | FK Qarabag | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Sabah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Safa Baku | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Imisli | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 7 | Shamakhi FK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 9 | Araz FK | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 10 | FK Sumqayit | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Kapaz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | FK Gabala | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Gabala | Shamakhi FK |
|---|---|---|
| PFK Turan Tovuz | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| FK Karvan | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| FK Qarabag | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Zira IK | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| FK Kapaz | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Gabala
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/08 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Shamakhi FK
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 21/05 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-3 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 07/04 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Gabala vs Shamakhi FK?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Gabala win (46%). Probabilities: FK Gabala 46%, draw 30%, Shamakhi FK 24%.
How many goals are expected in FK Gabala vs Shamakhi FK?
The model expects 2.25 goals (FK Gabala 1.35 · Shamakhi FK 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Gabala vs Shamakhi FK?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.