Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 31/10, 12:00

Prediction: Araz FK vs Zira IK

Team pages: Araz FK · Zira IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Araz FK0.98

Zira IK1.65

1X2

21% 27% 52%

Araz FK Draw Zira IK

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Araz FK 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

WDLLLDLLLL

Zira IK 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDLDDW

Head-to-head

Araz FK 3–1–2 Zira IK (6 last)

Araz FK3-2Zira IK
Araz FK0-1Zira IK
Zira IK1-1Araz FK
Araz FK0-1Zira IK
Zira IK0-2Araz FK
Araz FK1-0Zira IK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Araz FK 1444 · Zira IK 1522

	Araz FK	Draw	Zira IK
Our model	21%	27%	52%
Market	21%	26%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zira IK (rating 1444 vs 1522).
H2H favours Araz FK: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Araz FK	Zira IK
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.40

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:38 +11’	4.20	3.40	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Araz FK 3–1–2 Zira IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	3-2 HT 2-0	Zira IK
27/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	0-1 HT 0-0	Zira IK
19/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-1 HT 1-0	Araz FK
25/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Araz FK	0-1 HT 0-0	Zira IK
28/02/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Zira IK	0-2 HT 0-2	Araz FK
06/02/25 Azerbaijan Cup	Araz FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Zira IK

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	8	6	2	0	18	1	20
2	Neftchi Baku	9	5	3	1	22	9	18
3	FK Qarabag	8	5	3	0	14	7	18
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	9	4	3	2	8	6	15
5	Zira IK	9	4	3	2	12	12	15
6	FK Kapaz	8	4	2	2	9	9	14
7	Shamakhi FK	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
8	Imisli	9	3	1	5	9	14	10
9	FK Sumqayit	8	2	2	4	12	13	8
10	FK Gabala	9	2	1	6	5	16	7
11	Safa Baku	9	1	0	8	5	17	3
12	Araz FK	9	0	2	7	7	19	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Araz FK	Zira IK
FK Sumqayit	1-2 L	3-2 W
FK Kapaz	0-2 L	1-1 D
Shamakhi FK	1-2 L	1-1 D
PFK Turan Tovuz	2-2 D	0-1 L
FK Qarabag	2-3 L	1-1 D
Sabah	0-1 L	0-5 L
Neftchi Baku	0-5 L	1-0 W
Imisli	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 6 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Zira IK (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Araz FK

WDLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	8	L
16/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	6	L
09/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	8	L
13/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
06/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
31/08	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
23/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-4	0-5	5	4	L
15/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-2	4	3	W

Zira IK

LWWWLDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
18/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
10/10	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
19/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
13/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
30/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
22/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Araz FK vs Zira IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Zira IK win (52%). Probabilities: Araz FK 21%, draw 27%, Zira IK 52%.

How many goals are expected in Araz FK vs Zira IK?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Araz FK 0.98 · Zira IK 1.65), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Araz FK vs Zira IK?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.