Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 30/10, 15:30
Prediction: PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabah
Team pages: PFK Turan Tovuz · Sabah
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
PFK Turan Tovuz0.92
Sabah1.37
1X2
PFK Turan Tovuz
Draw
Sabah
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
PFK Turan Tovuz
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Sabah
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
PFK Turan Tovuz
1–1–4
Sabah
(6 last)
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-2Sabah
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-3Sabah
- Sabah2-0PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz2-1Sabah
- Sabah2-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-1Sabah
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · PFK Turan Tovuz 1481 · Sabah 1578
| PFK Turan Tovuz | Draw | Sabah | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 25% | 28% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sabah (rating 1481 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Sabah: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| PFK Turan Tovuz | Sabah | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 2.1 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/50/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.4 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · PFK Turan Tovuz 1–1–4 Sabah
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Sabah |
| 13/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Sabah |
| 20/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 2-0 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 12/04/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sabah |
| 09/02/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Sabah | 2-1 HT 0-1 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 03/12/24 Azerbaijan Cup | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sabah |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabah | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 20 |
| 2 | Neftchi Baku | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 15 |
| 5 | Zira IK | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | FK Kapaz | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Shamakhi FK | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | Imisli | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 8 |
| 10 | FK Gabala | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 7 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 3 |
| 12 | Araz FK | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 2 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | PFK Turan Tovuz | Sabah |
|---|---|---|
| Neftchi Baku | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Imisli | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Safa Baku | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Zira IK | 1-0 W | 5-0 W |
| Araz FK | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| FK Kapaz | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| FK Gabala | 1-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sabah (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/08 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
Sabah
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/10 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 19/09 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 05/09 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
3-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabah?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sabah win (47%). Probabilities: PFK Turan Tovuz 24%, draw 29%, Sabah 47%.
How many goals are expected in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabah?
The model expects 2.3 goals (PFK Turan Tovuz 0.92 · Sabah 1.37), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Sabah?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.