Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 31/10, 14:30

Prediction: FK Gabala vs FK Qarabag

Team pages: FK Gabala · FK Qarabag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

FK Gabala0.76

FK Qarabag2.05

1X2

12% 21% 67%

FK Gabala Draw FK Qarabag

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Gabala 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLLLW

FK Qarabag 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWWDD

Head-to-head

FK Gabala 0–2–4 FK Qarabag (6 last)

FK Gabala1-1FK Qarabag
FK Gabala1-2FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag2-0FK Gabala
FK Gabala0-2FK Qarabag
FK Qarabag2-2FK Gabala
FK Gabala0-4FK Qarabag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Gabala 1460 · FK Qarabag 1589

	FK Gabala	Draw	FK Qarabag
Our model	12%	22%	66%
Market	13%	20%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Qarabag (rating 1460 vs 1589).
H2H favours FK Qarabag: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Gabala	FK Qarabag
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.7	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	3.3 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:51 +3’	7.00	4.50	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Gabala 0–2–4 FK Qarabag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Qarabag
21/12/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	1-2 HT 1-1	FK Qarabag
26/09/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Gabala
04/12/24 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Gabala	0-2 HT 0-1	FK Qarabag
20/04/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Qarabag	2-2 HT 0-1	FK Gabala
28/02/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	0-4 HT 0-0	FK Qarabag

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	8	6	2	0	18	1	20
2	Neftchi Baku	9	5	3	1	22	9	18
3	FK Qarabag	8	5	3	0	14	7	18
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	9	4	3	2	8	6	15
5	Zira IK	9	4	3	2	12	12	15
6	FK Kapaz	8	4	2	2	9	9	14
7	Shamakhi FK	9	3	4	2	13	11	13
8	Imisli	9	3	1	5	9	14	10
9	FK Sumqayit	8	2	2	4	12	13	8
10	FK Gabala	9	2	1	6	5	16	7
11	Safa Baku	9	1	0	8	5	17	3
12	Araz FK	9	0	2	7	7	19	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Gabala	FK Qarabag
Araz FK	2-1 W	3-2 W
Sabah	0-4 L	0-0 D
FK Sumqayit	1-4 L	1-0 W
Neftchi Baku	0-3 L	3-3 D
Imisli	2-1 W	2-0 W
Shamakhi FK	0-0 D	3-1 W
Safa Baku	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FK Qarabag (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Gabala

WLLDWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	1	8	W
17/10	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
10/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
18/09	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
12/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
22/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	3-1	4	3	W

FK Qarabag

WWWWWDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
17/10	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-2	3-3	12	4	D
11/10	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
18/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
13/09	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/09	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
31/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	11	3	W
17/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
22/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	4-3	1	4	W
16/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	3-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Gabala vs FK Qarabag?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Qarabag win (67%). Probabilities: FK Gabala 12%, draw 21%, FK Qarabag 67%.

How many goals are expected in FK Gabala vs FK Qarabag?

The model expects 2.82 goals (FK Gabala 0.76 · FK Qarabag 2.05), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Gabala vs FK Qarabag?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.