Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 06/11, 17:00
Prediction: Neftchi Baku vs FK Kapaz
Team pages: Neftchi Baku · FK Kapaz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Neftchi Baku2.24
FK Kapaz0.79
1X2
Neftchi Baku
Draw
FK Kapaz
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Neftchi Baku
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
FK Kapaz
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Neftchi Baku
4–1–1
FK Kapaz
(6 last)
- FK Kapaz0-1Neftchi Baku
- FK Kapaz1-3Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku5-1FK Kapaz
- Neftchi Baku2-2FK Kapaz
- FK Kapaz1-0Neftchi Baku
- Neftchi Baku1-0FK Kapaz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Neftchi Baku 1594 · FK Kapaz 1515
| Neftchi Baku | Draw | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Market | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1594 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Neftchi Baku: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Neftchi Baku | FK Kapaz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.1 | 1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.3 | 1.6 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Neftchi Baku 4–1–1 FK Kapaz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Baku |
| 15/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Neftchi Baku |
| 01/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 5-1 HT 2-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 04/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | Neftchi Baku | 2-2 HT 1-0 | FK Kapaz |
| 05/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Kapaz | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Neftchi Baku |
| 28/02/25 Azerbaijan Cup | Neftchi Baku | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FK Kapaz |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Sabah | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | FK Kapaz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Zira IK | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Shamakhi FK | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 8 | Imisli | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| 10 | FK Gabala | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 8 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
| 12 | Araz FK | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Neftchi Baku | FK Kapaz |
|---|---|---|
| Shamakhi FK | 3-2 W | 1-4 L |
| PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sabah | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| FK Gabala | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Imisli | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Safa Baku | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Zira IK | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Araz FK | 5-0 W | 2-0 W |
| FK Sumqayit | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Neftchi Baku
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 24/10 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 17/10 | FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-1 | 3-3 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 09/10 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/09 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 11/09 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 05/09 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/08 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
FK Kapaz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 24/10 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/09 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 30/08 | PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Neftchi Baku vs FK Kapaz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Neftchi Baku win (70%). Probabilities: Neftchi Baku 70%, draw 19%, FK Kapaz 11%.
How many goals are expected in Neftchi Baku vs FK Kapaz?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Neftchi Baku 2.24 · FK Kapaz 0.79), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Neftchi Baku vs FK Kapaz?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.