Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 06/11, 15:00
Prediction: FK Qarabag vs PFK Turan Tovuz
Team pages: FK Qarabag · PFK Turan Tovuz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.43Total
FK Qarabag1.63
PFK Turan Tovuz0.8
1X2
FK Qarabag
Draw
PFK Turan Tovuz
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FK Qarabag
6-4-0 (W-D-L)
PFK Turan Tovuz
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FK Qarabag
4–1–1
PFK Turan Tovuz
(6 last)
- FK Qarabag2-1PFK Turan Tovuz
- FK Qarabag1-0PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-2FK Qarabag
- PFK Turan Tovuz1-4FK Qarabag
- FK Qarabag1-2PFK Turan Tovuz
- PFK Turan Tovuz0-0FK Qarabag
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FK Qarabag 1583 · PFK Turan Tovuz 1504
| FK Qarabag | Draw | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Qarabag (rating 1583 vs 1504).
- H2H favours FK Qarabag: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FK Qarabag | PFK Turan Tovuz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.9 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Qarabag 4–1–1 PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 2-1 HT 0-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 01/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 1-0 HT 1-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 17/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-2 HT 1-0 | FK Qarabag |
| 28/03/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 1-4 HT 1-2 | FK Qarabag |
| 26/01/25 Azerbaijan Premier League | FK Qarabag | 1-2 HT 1-0 | PFK Turan Tovuz |
| 01/11/24 Azerbaijan Premier League | PFK Turan Tovuz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FK Qarabag |
Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Baku | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 25 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Sabah | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 4 | 20 |
| 3 | FK Qarabag | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | PFK Turan Tovuz | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | FK Kapaz | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 17 |
| 6 | Zira IK | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Shamakhi FK | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 13 |
| 8 | Imisli | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 10 |
| 9 | FK Sumqayit | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 9 |
| 10 | FK Gabala | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | 8 |
| 11 | Safa Baku | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 4 |
| 12 | Araz FK | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 3 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FK Qarabag | PFK Turan Tovuz |
|---|---|---|
| FK Gabala | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Sabah | 0-0 D | 3-2 W |
| Neftchi Baku | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Imisli | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Safa Baku | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Zira IK | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Araz FK | 3-2 W | 2-2 D |
| FK Sumqayit | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Shamakhi FK | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 4 D 0 L | 5 W 3 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FK Qarabag
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-2 | 3-3 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/09 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 13/09 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 17/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 4 | W |
PFK Turan Tovuz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 13/09 | Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/08 | FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FK Qarabag vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Qarabag win (57%). Probabilities: FK Qarabag 57%, draw 26%, PFK Turan Tovuz 18%.
How many goals are expected in FK Qarabag vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model expects 2.43 goals (FK Qarabag 1.63 · PFK Turan Tovuz 0.8), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FK Qarabag vs PFK Turan Tovuz?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.