Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 07/11, 15:30

Prediction: Zira IK vs FK Gabala

Team pages: Zira IK · FK Gabala

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Zira IK1.51

FK Gabala0.74

1X2

55% 27% 18%

Zira IK Draw FK Gabala

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Zira IK 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLDDWD

FK Gabala 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWLLLLWD

Head-to-head

Zira IK 6–0 FK Gabala (6 last)

Zira IK1-0FK Gabala
Zira IK1-0FK Gabala
FK Gabala1-2Zira IK
FK Gabala0-2Zira IK
Zira IK4-0FK Gabala
Zira IK2-1FK Gabala

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zira IK 1534 · FK Gabala 1460

	Zira IK	Draw	FK Gabala
Our model	55%	28%	17%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zira IK (rating 1534 vs 1460).
H2H favours Zira IK: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zira IK	FK Gabala
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	0.5 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.8	1.5 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.40

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +43’	1.61	3.40	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zira IK 6–0–0 FK Gabala

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Gabala
22/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Gabala
25/08/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	1-2 HT 1-2	Zira IK
24/04/24 Azerbaijan Cup	FK Gabala	0-2 HT 0-0	Zira IK
07/04/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	4-0 HT 3-0	FK Gabala
03/04/24 Azerbaijan Cup	Zira IK	2-1 HT 0-0	FK Gabala

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Neftchi Baku	10	6	3	1	25	11	21
2	Sabah	9	6	2	1	20	4	20
3	FK Qarabag	9	5	4	0	14	7	19
4	PFK Turan Tovuz	10	5	3	2	11	8	18
5	FK Kapaz	9	5	2	2	10	9	17
6	Zira IK	10	4	4	2	14	14	16
7	Shamakhi FK	10	3	4	3	15	14	13
8	Imisli	10	3	1	6	9	15	10
9	FK Sumqayit	9	2	3	4	13	14	9
10	FK Gabala	10	2	2	6	5	16	8
11	Safa Baku	10	1	1	8	6	18	4
12	Araz FK	10	0	3	7	9	21	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zira IK	FK Gabala
Araz FK	2-2 D	2-1 W
FK Sumqayit	3-2 W	1-4 L
FK Kapaz	1-1 D	0-1 L
Shamakhi FK	1-1 D	0-0 D
PFK Turan Tovuz	0-1 L	0-1 L
FK Qarabag	1-1 D	0-0 D
Sabah	0-5 L	0-4 L
Neftchi Baku	1-0 W	0-3 L
Imisli	3-1 W	2-1 W
Safa Baku	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Zira IK (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zira IK

WWWLDLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	2	D
23/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
18/10	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D
10/10	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
19/09	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
13/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
30/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
22/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W

FK Gabala

LLDWLLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/10	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	1	8	W
17/10	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-4	3	0	L
10/10	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-3	1-4	5	5	L
18/09	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
12/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
22/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zira IK vs FK Gabala?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Zira IK win (55%). Probabilities: Zira IK 55%, draw 27%, FK Gabala 18%.

How many goals are expected in Zira IK vs FK Gabala?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Zira IK 1.51 · FK Gabala 0.74), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Zira IK vs FK Gabala?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.