Football · Italy Serie B · 23/08, 19:00
Prediction: Pisa vs Padova
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Pisa1.62
Padova0.87
1X2
Pisa
Draw
Padova
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Pisa
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Padova
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pisa 1451 · Padova 1507
| Pisa | Draw | Padova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 27% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 28% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Padova (rating 1451 vs 1507).
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pisa | Padova | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.1 | 1.7 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0 |
Standings · Italy Serie B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicenza | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Ascoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Benevento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Padova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Carrarese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Cesena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Empoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mantova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Modena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Pisa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sampdoria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Arezzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Avellino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Cremonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Virtus Entella | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Catanzaro | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pisa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Empoli Coppa Italia |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Bologna Club Friendly List |
4-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/07 | Pro Vercelli Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 19/07 | Pavia Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Lazio Italy Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Napoli Italy Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Cremonese Italy Serie A |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 01/05 | Lecce Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | Parma Italy Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/04 | Genoa Italy Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Padova
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Udinese Coppa Italia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/08 | Monza Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 01/08 | Cittadella Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | A.C. Ospitaletto Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 22/07 | Sassuolo Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Cesena Italy Serie B |
3-3 | 4-3 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/05 | Pescara Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Virtus Entella Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | AC Reggiana Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pisa vs Padova?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pisa win (54%). Probabilities: Pisa 54%, draw 27%, Padova 19%.
How many goals are expected in Pisa vs Padova?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Pisa 1.62 · Padova 0.87), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Padova?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.