Football · Italy Serie B · 22/08, 21:00
Prediction: Avellino vs Arezzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.2Total
Avellino1.75
Arezzo1.45
1X2
Avellino
Draw
Arezzo
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Avellino
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Arezzo
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Avellino 1539 · Arezzo 1483
| Avellino | Draw | Arezzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avellino (rating 1539 vs 1483).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Avellino | Arezzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 4 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.8 | 1.9 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 2.4 / 0 |
Standings · Italy Serie B
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ascoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Benevento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Padova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Carrarese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cesena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Empoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sudtirol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Verona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juve Stabia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Vicenza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Mantova | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Modena | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Palermo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pisa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sampdoria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Arezzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Avellino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Catanzaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cremonese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Virtus Entella | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Avellino
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Monza Coppa Italia |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Torino Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 01/08 | Lazio Europe Friendlies |
1-3 | 3-6 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Real Forio 2014 Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 3-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 26/07 | Sambenedettese Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 22/07 | Scafatese Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 19/07 | Castel Di Sangro Club Friendly List |
10-0 | 24-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/05 | Catanzaro Italy Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 08/05 | Modena Italy Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Empoli Italy Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Arezzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Cagliari Coppa Italia |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 09/08 | Union Brescia Coppa Italia |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/07 | Parma Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 29/07 | Albinoleffe Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 26/07 | Atalanta Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | US Folgore Caratese Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/07 | Napoli Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | Benevento Italy Serie C Super Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Vicenza Italy Serie C Super Cup |
0-2 | 2-5 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/04 | Torres Italy Serie C Group B |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Avellino vs Arezzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Avellino win (43%). Probabilities: Avellino 43%, draw 27%, Arezzo 30%.
How many goals are expected in Avellino vs Arezzo?
The model expects 3.2 goals (Avellino 1.75 · Arezzo 1.45), with a 59% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Arezzo?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.