Football · Bahrain Premier League · 27/08, 18:00

Prediction: Sitra vs Malkiya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

Sitra1.17

Malkiya1.02

1X2

39% 31% 31%

Sitra Draw Malkiya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sitra 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLWLWW

Malkiya 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDWWWLL

Head-to-head

Sitra 3–1–2 Malkiya (6 last)

Sitra1-0Malkiya
Malkiya0-0Sitra
Malkiya0-1Sitra
Sitra0-1Malkiya
Malkiya1-0Sitra
Sitra1-0Malkiya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sitra 1479 · Malkiya 1476

	Sitra	Draw	Malkiya
Our model	38%	32%	30%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sitra: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sitra	Malkiya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.1	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.45 ★
X	3.20 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	2.40 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +3’	2.63	3.20	2.40
19:16 +14’	2.30▼	3.00▼	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:30	2.43	2.75	3.09
17:13 +2’	2.45▲	2.77▲	3.05▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sitra 3–1–2 Malkiya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Bahrain Premier League	Sitra	1-0 HT 1-0	Malkiya
10/01/26 Bahrain Premier League	Malkiya	0-0 HT 0-0	Sitra
11/05/25 Bahrain Premier League	Malkiya	0-1 HT 0-0	Sitra
09/01/25 Bahrain Premier League	Sitra	0-1 HT 0-1	Malkiya
13/01/24 Bahrain Cup	Malkiya	1-0	Sitra
16/05/22 Bahrain Play-Offs	Sitra	1-0 HT 1-0	Malkiya

Standings · Bahrain Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	A'ali Club	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Hidd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Ahli Manama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Khalidiyah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Muharraq	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Najma Manama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Riffa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	East Riffa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malkiya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Manama	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sitra	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sitra	Malkiya
Al Shabab Manama	3-1 W	1-0 W
Al-Ahli Manama	0-2 L	0-0 D
A'ali Club	2-0 W	0-1 L
Al Khalidiyah	1-3 L	1-2 L
Al-Muharraq	0-3 L	0-1 L
Al Budaiya	3-0 W	1-0 W
Al-Najma Manama	0-2 L	3-0 W
Al-Riffa	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Malkiya (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sitra

LLLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Malkiya Bahrain Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
10/05	Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
05/05	Al-Ahli Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
27/04	A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
18/04	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-3	4	9	L
03/04	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	0-3	0-3	7	5	L
12/03	Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
23/02	Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
14/02	Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-2	9	4	L
28/01	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	5	L

Malkiya

WLLLDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/05	Sitra Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/05	Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
03/05	Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	2	W
28/04	Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
18/04	Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
04/04	Al-Ahli Manama Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/03	A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
21/02	Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
07/02	Al-Muharraq Bahrain Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
26/01	Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sitra vs Malkiya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sitra win (39%). Probabilities: Sitra 39%, draw 31%, Malkiya 31%.

How many goals are expected in Sitra vs Malkiya?

The model expects 2.19 goals (Sitra 1.17 · Malkiya 1.02), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sitra vs Malkiya?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.