Football · Bahrain Premier League · 28/08, 18:00
Prediction: Al-Muharraq vs Al-Ahli Manama
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Al-Muharraq1.7
Al-Ahli Manama0.71
1X2
Al-Muharraq
Draw
Al-Ahli Manama
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Al-Muharraq
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Al-Ahli Manama
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al-Muharraq
4–1–1
Al-Ahli Manama
(6 last)
- Al-Muharraq2-1Al-Ahli Manama
- Al-Ahli Manama0-1Al-Muharraq
- Al-Muharraq3-0Al-Ahli Manama
- Al-Ahli Manama2-1Al-Muharraq
- Al-Muharraq3-2Al-Ahli Manama
- Al-Ahli Manama2-2Al-Muharraq
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al-Muharraq 1611 · Al-Ahli Manama 1479
| Al-Muharraq | Draw | Al-Ahli Manama | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 26% | 14% |
| Market | 62% | 21% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Muharraq (rating 1611 vs 1479).
- H2H favours Al-Muharraq: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al-Muharraq | Al-Ahli Manama | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.5 / 8.2 | 2.1 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al-Muharraq 4–1–1 Al-Ahli Manama
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Bahrain Kings Cup | Al-Muharraq | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Al-Ahli Manama |
| 15/01/26 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Ahli Manama | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Al-Muharraq |
| 12/09/25 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Muharraq | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Al-Ahli Manama |
| 17/05/25 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Ahli Manama | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Al-Muharraq |
| 17/01/25 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Muharraq | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Al-Ahli Manama |
| 08/04/24 Bahrain Premier League | Al-Ahli Manama | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Al-Muharraq |
Standings · Bahrain Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A'ali Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Hidd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Ahli Manama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al Khalidiyah | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Muharraq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Najma Manama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Al-Riffa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | East Riffa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Malkiya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Manama | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sitra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al-Muharraq | Al-Ahli Manama |
|---|---|---|
| A'ali Club | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Al Khalidiyah | 2-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Al-Najma Manama | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Al Budaiya | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Al Hidd | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Sitra | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Al-Riffa | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Bahrain SC | 7-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Malkiya | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Al Shabab Manama | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 9 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Al-Muharraq (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al-Muharraq
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05 | A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 04/05 | Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 29/04 | Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 16/04 | Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Sitra Bahrain Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 12/03 | Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 11 | D |
| 20/02 | Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League |
5-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 07/02 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 27/01 | Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
Al-Ahli Manama
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05 | Al Budaiya Bahrain Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 11/05 | Al Hidd Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 05/05 | Sitra Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 29/04 | Al-Riffa Bahrain Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 17/04 | Bahrain SC Bahrain Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Malkiya Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/03 | Al Shabab Manama Bahrain Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 20/02 | Al-Najma Manama Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 12/02 | A'ali Club Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 26/01 | Al Khalidiyah Bahrain Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al-Muharraq vs Al-Ahli Manama?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al-Muharraq win (61%). Probabilities: Al-Muharraq 61%, draw 23%, Al-Ahli Manama 15%.
How many goals are expected in Al-Muharraq vs Al-Ahli Manama?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Al-Muharraq 1.7 · Al-Ahli Manama 0.71), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Al-Muharraq vs Al-Ahli Manama?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.