Football · Peru Liga 1 · 06/08, 22:00

Prediction: Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano

Team pages: Alianza Atletico · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Alianza Atletico1.65

Cienciano1.13

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Alianza Atletico Draw Cienciano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Atletico 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Cienciano 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alianza Atletico 1–1–4 Cienciano (6 last)

Cienciano1-1Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico0-1Cienciano
Cienciano3-2Alianza Atletico
Cienciano3-0Alianza Atletico
Alianza Atletico0-1Cienciano
Alianza Atletico2-1Cienciano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Atletico 1520 · Cienciano 1507

	Alianza Atletico	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cienciano: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Atletico	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +4’	1.91	3.40	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Atletico 1–1–4 Cienciano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	1-1 HT 1-1	Alianza Atletico
25/10/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-1 HT 0-0	Cienciano
23/06/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	3-2 HT 1-2	Alianza Atletico
24/10/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	3-0 HT 2-0	Alianza Atletico
13/05/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	0-1 HT 0-0	Cienciano
06/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Atletico	2-1 HT 1-0	Cienciano

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	20	14	5	1	37	12	47
2	CD Los Chankas	20	12	4	4	30	26	40
3	Universitario de Deportes	19	10	5	4	28	17	35
4	FBC Melgar	19	10	4	5	34	22	34
5	Cienciano	19	10	3	6	35	27	33
6	Cusco FC	20	10	3	7	30	28	33
7	Deportivo Garcilaso	19	8	5	6	23	20	29
8	Sport Boys	20	7	5	8	18	20	26
9	Sporting Cristal	20	7	4	9	32	32	25
10	Alianza Atletico	20	6	6	8	25	26	24
11	Comerciantes Unidos	20	5	8	7	24	27	23
12	Sport Huancayo	20	6	4	10	26	33	22
13	AD Tarma	19	5	5	9	23	25	20
14	Deportivo Moquegua	19	5	5	9	19	26	20
15	Juan Pablo II College	20	5	5	10	26	44	20
16	Atletico Grau	20	5	4	11	15	22	19
17	FC Cajamarca	20	4	6	10	26	34	18
18	UTC Cajamarca	20	4	7	9	23	33	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Atletico	Cienciano
Cusco FC	1-4 L	2-1 W
FBC Melgar	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cienciano (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Alianza Atletico

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
24/07	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-1	2	3	W
19/07	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
10/07	Pirata FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	3-2	5	2	W
28/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
19/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
13/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
31/05	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	1	4	L
29/05	CA Tigre Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-2	1	8	L
24/05	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Cienciano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	3-0	4-0	6	5	W
25/07	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
23/07	Lanus Copa Sudamericana	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
18/07	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-3	2	6	L
10/07	AD Tarma Peru Copa de la Liga	0-1	2-3	7	1	L
29/06	Cusco FC Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
22/06	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	2-1	4	11	W
14/06	Deportivo Binacional Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	2-0	8	6	W
01/06	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
28/05	Juventud De Las Piedras Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Atletico win (48%). Probabilities: Alianza Atletico 48%, draw 27%, Cienciano 25%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Alianza Atletico 1.65 · Cienciano 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Atletico vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.