Football · Chile Segunda · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Provincial Ovalle vs General Velásquez

Team pages: Provincial Ovalle · General Velásquez

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Provincial Ovalle1.3

General Velásquez1.12

1X2

40% 29% 31%

Provincial Ovalle Draw General Velásquez

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Provincial Ovalle 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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General Velásquez 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Provincial Ovalle 4–2 General Velásquez (6 last)

General Velásquez1-0Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle2-0General Velásquez
General Velásquez1-2Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle2-0General Velásquez
General Velásquez2-0Provincial Ovalle
General Velásquez0-1Provincial Ovalle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Provincial Ovalle 1478 · General Velásquez 1464

	Provincial Ovalle	Draw	General Velásquez
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	28%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Provincial Ovalle: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Provincial Ovalle	General Velásquez
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/70/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.1	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.80▲	Pinn 3.04 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:58 +7’	2.30	3.20	2.70
22:56 +9’	2.20▼	3.20	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +51’	2.10	3.28	3.02
10:03 +128’	2.11▲	3.30▲	3.04▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Ovalle 4–0–2 General Velásquez

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/26 Chile Segunda	General Velásquez	1-0 HT 0-0	Provincial Ovalle
24/08/25 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	2-0 HT 1-0	General Velásquez
06/04/25 Chile Segunda	General Velásquez	1-2 HT 0-1	Provincial Ovalle
27/08/24 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	2-0 HT 1-0	General Velásquez
14/04/24 Chile Segunda	General Velásquez	2-0 HT 0-0	Provincial Ovalle
04/06/17 Chile Tercera	General Velásquez	0-1 HT 0-1	Provincial Ovalle

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Rengo Unido	7	5	2	0	17	7	17
2	Lota Schwager	7	3	2	2	9	6	11
3	Santiago Morning	7	1	5	1	8	8	8
4	Provincial Ovalle	6	2	2	2	5	8	8
5	AC Colina	7	2	1	4	6	8	7
6	General Velásquez	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	7	1	3	3	8	13	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Provincial Ovalle	General Velásquez
CD Rengo Unido	1-5 L	1-1 D
Lota Schwager	2-1 W	1-2 L
AC Colina	1-0 W	2-3 L
Santiago Morning	0-0 D	0-0 D
Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-1 D	1-1 D
CD Trasandino de Los Andes	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Provincial Ovalle (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Provincial Ovalle

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	1-5	11	7	L
26/09	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-1	12	9	W
07/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
04/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
26/06	Santiago City Chile Segunda	2-1	2-3	1	7	L
21/06	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-3	1-6	3	2	L
08/06	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

General Velásquez

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	1-1	1-2	3	4	L
04/10	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-1	2-3	1	5	L
12/09	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
06/09	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
22/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
16/08	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	7	W
08/08	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	1-2	1-3	5	7	L
01/08	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
26/07	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	7	10	D
12/07	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	2-0	10	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Provincial Ovalle vs General Velásquez?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Ovalle win (40%). Probabilities: Provincial Ovalle 40%, draw 29%, General Velásquez 31%.

How many goals are expected in Provincial Ovalle vs General Velásquez?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Provincial Ovalle 1.3 · General Velásquez 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Provincial Ovalle vs General Velásquez?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.