Football · Chile Segunda · 01/11, 20:00

Prediction: Real Juventud San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle

Team pages: Real Juventud San Joaquin · Provincial Ovalle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Real Juventud San Joaquin1.6

Provincial Ovalle1.43

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Real Juventud San Joaquin Draw Provincial Ovalle

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Juventud San Joaquin 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDDLDLLW

Provincial Ovalle 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDDWWLL

Head-to-head

Real Juventud San Joaquin 3–2–1 Provincial Ovalle (6 last)

Provincial Ovalle1-1Real Juventud San Joaquin
Provincial Ovalle1-6Real Juventud San Joaquin
Real Juventud San Joaquin3-2Provincial Ovalle
Real Juventud San Joaquin1-0Provincial Ovalle
Provincial Ovalle0-0Real Juventud San Joaquin
Real Juventud San Joaquin1-2Provincial Ovalle

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Juventud San Joaquin 1476 · Provincial Ovalle 1452

	Real Juventud San Joaquin	Draw	Provincial Ovalle
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	40%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Juventud San Joaquin: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 12 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Juventud San Joaquin	Provincial Ovalle
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2	1.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	4.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.4 / 0.4	5.6 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.10

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 10:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.25▲	Pinn 2.31
X	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.62 ★
2	3.30 → 2.80▼	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +41’	1.95	3.30	3.30
22:02 +14’	2.20▲	3.25▼	2.80▼
06:10 +4’	2.20	3.20▼	2.88▲
10:16 +4’	2.25▲	3.10▼	2.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +17’	2.28	3.55	2.65
18:39 +19’	2.31▲	3.62▲	2.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Juventud San Joaquin 3–2–1 Provincial Ovalle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Juventud San Joaquin
21/06/26 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	1-6 HT 0-3	Real Juventud San Joaquin
19/04/26 Chile Segunda	Real Juventud San Joaquin	3-2 HT 1-1	Provincial Ovalle
08/11/25 Chile Segunda	Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-0 HT 1-0	Provincial Ovalle
30/05/25 Chile Segunda	Provincial Ovalle	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Juventud San Joaquin
12/10/24 Chile Segunda	Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-2 HT 1-0	Provincial Ovalle

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lota Schwager	9	5	2	2	18	8	17
2	CD Rengo Unido	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
3	General Velásquez	9	3	3	3	10	11	12
4	Santiago Morning	9	1	6	2	10	13	9
5	Provincial Ovalle	7	2	2	3	6	10	8
6	AC Colina	8	2	2	4	7	9	8
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	7	1	3	3	8	13	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Juventud San Joaquin	Provincial Ovalle
Santiago Morning	2-1 W	0-0 D
Lota Schwager	0-2 L	2-1 W
AC Colina	0-1 L	1-0 W
General Velásquez	1-1 D	1-2 L
CD Rengo Unido	2-5 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Real Juventud San Joaquin (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Juventud San Joaquin

DLLDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	2-1	2-1	1	10	W
03/10	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
27/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	3	9	L
06/09	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
31/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	1-4	2-5	4	7	L
22/08	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
10/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	1-2	2-2	4	6	D
12/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-2	1-5	11	2	L
05/07	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
28/06	Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	6	D

Provincial Ovalle

LLWLDDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	1-2	9	5	L
03/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	1-5	11	7	L
26/09	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-1	12	9	W
07/09	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
22/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
16/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
04/07	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
26/06	Santiago City Chile Segunda	2-1	2-3	1	7	L
21/06	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-3	1-6	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Juventud San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Juventud San Joaquin win (40%). Probabilities: Real Juventud San Joaquin 40%, draw 28%, Provincial Ovalle 32%.

How many goals are expected in Real Juventud San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Real Juventud San Joaquin 1.6 · Provincial Ovalle 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Juventud San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.