Football · Chile Segunda · 31/10, 20:30

Prediction: Santiago Morning vs Lota Schwager

Team pages: Santiago Morning · Lota Schwager

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Santiago Morning1.16

Lota Schwager1.13

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Santiago Morning Draw Lota Schwager

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Santiago Morning 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDDDLD

Lota Schwager 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDDLWWW

Head-to-head

Santiago Morning 2–3–1 Lota Schwager (6 last)

Lota Schwager1-1Santiago Morning
Lota Schwager1-1Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning1-1Lota Schwager
Lota Schwager2-1Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning1-0Lota Schwager
Santiago Morning2-0Lota Schwager

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santiago Morning 1474 · Lota Schwager 1547

	Santiago Morning	Draw	Lota Schwager
Our model	35%	31%	34%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lota Schwager (rating 1474 vs 1547).
H2H favours Santiago Morning: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santiago Morning	Lota Schwager
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.3	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	2.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	5.9 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.49
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.63 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +11’	2.25	3.30	2.75
22:18 +21’	2.45▲	3.30	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:59 +40’	2.49	3.15	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Santiago Morning 2–3–1 Lota Schwager

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Chile Segunda	Lota Schwager	1-1 HT 1-0	Santiago Morning
21/06/26 Chile Segunda	Lota Schwager	1-1 HT 0-1	Santiago Morning
19/04/26 Chile Segunda	Santiago Morning	1-1 HT 1-0	Lota Schwager
22/03/15 Chile Primera B	Lota Schwager	2-1 HT 1-0	Santiago Morning
01/02/15 Chile Primera B	Santiago Morning	1-0 HT 0-0	Lota Schwager
26/10/14 Chile Primera B	Santiago Morning	2-0 HT 1-0	Lota Schwager

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Rengo Unido	8	5	2	1	18	12	17
2	Lota Schwager	8	4	2	2	14	7	14
3	Santiago Morning	8	1	6	1	9	9	9
4	General Velásquez	8	2	3	3	9	11	9
5	Provincial Ovalle	7	2	2	3	6	10	8
6	AC Colina	8	2	2	4	7	9	8
7	Real Juventud San Joaquin	7	1	3	3	8	13	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santiago Morning	Lota Schwager
AC Colina	1-1 D	0-0 D
Real Juventud San Joaquin	1-2 L	2-0 W
General Velásquez	0-0 D	2-1 W
CD Rengo Unido	2-2 D	5-1 W
Provincial Ovalle	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lota Schwager (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santiago Morning

LLDWDDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	8	6	D
11/10	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	1-2	1-2	12	10	L
12/09	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
06/09	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-2	2-2	5	5	D
30/08	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
22/08	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
17/08	AC Colina Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	2	4	W
10/08	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
04/07	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	1-0	1-3	4	6	L
28/06	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	0-0	0-1	7	5	L

Lota Schwager

WDWLDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	3-0	5-1	3	4	W
11/10	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-1	2-1	12	4	W
03/10	Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
26/09	Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
29/08	AC Colina Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
22/08	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
16/08	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	9	7	L
08/08	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	2-1	3-1	6	7	W
12/07	Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda	0-0	2-2	10	7	D
05/07	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	2-0	2	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santiago Morning vs Lota Schwager?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santiago Morning win (36%). Probabilities: Santiago Morning 36%, draw 29%, Lota Schwager 35%.

How many goals are expected in Santiago Morning vs Lota Schwager?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Santiago Morning 1.16 · Lota Schwager 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Santiago Morning vs Lota Schwager?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.