Football · Ghana Premier League · 06/09, 17:00

Prediction: Heart of Lions vs Aduana Stars

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.96Total

Heart of Lions1.53

Aduana Stars0.43

1X2

64% 26% 10%

Heart of Lions Draw Aduana Stars

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

1-0 21%

Recent form · 10 last

Heart of Lions 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDLWL

Aduana Stars 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDLDWL

Head-to-head

Heart of Lions 1–2–3 Aduana Stars (6 last)

Aduana Stars0-0Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions0-1Aduana Stars
Heart of Lions2-1Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars1-1Heart of Lions
Aduana Stars1-0Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions1-2Aduana Stars

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heart of Lions 1478 · Aduana Stars 1486

	Heart of Lions	Draw	Aduana Stars
Our model	64%	27%	9%
Market	65%	25%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 1.96 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Aduana Stars: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heart of Lions	Aduana Stars
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4	5.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.40

X3.60

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.40▼	Bet365 1.40
X	3.25 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	6.50 → 9.00▲	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:29 +8’	1.53	3.25	6.50
10:12 +31’	1.40▼	3.60▲	9.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heart of Lions 1–2–3 Aduana Stars

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Ghana Premier League	Aduana Stars	0-0 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
12/12/25 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	0-1 HT 0-0	Aduana Stars
26/01/25 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	2-1 HT 0-0	Aduana Stars
08/09/24 Ghana Premier League	Aduana Stars	1-1 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
14/04/24 Ghana Premier League	Aduana Stars	1-0 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
05/11/23 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	1-2 HT 0-2	Aduana Stars

Standings · Ghana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Aduana Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Asante Kotoko	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Basake Holy Stars FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bechem FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berekum Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bibiani Gold Stars	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Debibi United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Dreams	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashanti Gold	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Samartex	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heart of Lions	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hearts of Oak	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Karela United FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Medeama SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Port City FC Ghana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Swedru All Blacks Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Vision FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Young Apostles	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Heart of Lions	Aduana Stars
Vision FC	2-0 W	0-3 L
Young Apostles	0-3 L	3-1 W
Hearts of Oak	0-0 D	0-0 D
Basake Holy Stars FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Heart of Lions (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Heart of Lions

LWDLWDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
10/05	Samartex Ghana Premier League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
06/05	Nations FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
05/04	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
29/03	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
20/03	Hearts of Oak Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
08/03	Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
01/03	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Aduana Stars

WLDLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-3	0	5	L
17/05	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	1-1	3-1	4	1	W
10/05	Hearts of Oak Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
06/05	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-2	0	0	L
03/05	Heart of Lions Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
10/04	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	2-1	7	5	W
05/04	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
29/03	Asante Kotoko Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	16	3	D
22/03	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
08/03	Eleven Wonders Ghana Premier League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heart of Lions vs Aduana Stars?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Heart of Lions win (64%). Probabilities: Heart of Lions 64%, draw 26%, Aduana Stars 10%.

How many goals are expected in Heart of Lions vs Aduana Stars?

The model expects 1.96 goals (Heart of Lions 1.53 · Aduana Stars 0.43), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Heart of Lions vs Aduana Stars?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.