Football · Ghana Premier League · 13/09, 17:00
Prediction: Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions
Team pages: Heart of Lions
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.14Total
Asante Kotoko1.33
Heart of Lions0.81
1X2
Asante Kotoko
Draw
Heart of Lions
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Asante Kotoko
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Heart of Lions
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Asante Kotoko
0–3–3
Heart of Lions
(6 last)
- Heart of Lions3-1Asante Kotoko
- Asante Kotoko0-0Heart of Lions
- Heart of Lions1-1Asante Kotoko
- Asante Kotoko0-1Heart of Lions
- Heart of Lions1-0Asante Kotoko
- Asante Kotoko0-0Heart of Lions
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Asante Kotoko 1446 · Heart of Lions 1502
| Asante Kotoko | Draw | Heart of Lions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 31% | 21% |
| Market | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Heart of Lions (rating 1446 vs 1502).
- H2H favours Heart of Lions: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Asante Kotoko | Heart of Lions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 3.1 | 1.5 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 3.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Asante Kotoko 0–3–3 Heart of Lions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Ghana Premier League | Heart of Lions | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Asante Kotoko |
| 05/10/25 Ghana Premier League | Asante Kotoko | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Heart of Lions |
| 06/04/25 Ghana Premier League | Heart of Lions | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Asante Kotoko |
| 03/11/24 Ghana Premier League | Asante Kotoko | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Heart of Lions |
| 24/02/24 Ghana Premier League | Heart of Lions | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Asante Kotoko |
| 17/09/23 Ghana Premier League | Asante Kotoko | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Heart of Lions |
Standings · Ghana Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hearts of Oak | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Vision FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Samartex | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Basake Holy Stars FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Bechem FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Asante Kotoko | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | Debibi United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 8 | Ashanti Gold | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Port City FC Ghana | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Aduana Stars | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Heart of Lions | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Dreams | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Medeama SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Bibiani Gold Stars | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Swedru All Blacks Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Karela United FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Young Apostles | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Berekum Chelsea | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Asante Kotoko | Heart of Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Swedru All Blacks Utd | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Medeama SC | 0-4 L | 2-5 L |
| Samartex | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Aduana Stars | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Nations FC | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Karela United FC | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Heart of Lions (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Asante Kotoko
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Debibi United Ghana Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 24/05 | Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | Bechem FC Ghana Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Eleven Wonders Ghana Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/05 | Dreams Ghana Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Medeama SC Ghana Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 07/04 | Samartex Ghana Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 29/03 | Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/03 | Nations FC Ghana Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/03 | Karela United FC Ghana Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
Heart of Lions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | Medeama SC Ghana Premier League |
1-2 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Samartex Ghana Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Nations FC Ghana Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 12/04 | Karela United FC Ghana Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 05/04 | Vision FC Ghana Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/03 | Young Apostles Ghana Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/03 | Hearts of Oak Ghana Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 08/03 | Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Asante Kotoko win (48%). Probabilities: Asante Kotoko 48%, draw 30%, Heart of Lions 22%.
How many goals are expected in Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Asante Kotoko 1.33 · Heart of Lions 0.81), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Asante Kotoko vs Heart of Lions?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.