Football · Peru Liga 2 · 16/08, 22:30

Prediction: Carlos Manucci vs Cesar Vallejo

Team pages: Carlos Manucci · Cesar Vallejo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Carlos Manucci1.34

Cesar Vallejo0.99

1X2

44% 29% 27%

Carlos Manucci Draw Cesar Vallejo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Carlos Manucci 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDWLW

Cesar Vallejo 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Carlos Manucci 2–4 Cesar Vallejo (6 last)

Cesar Vallejo2-3Carlos Manucci
Cesar Vallejo2-0Carlos Manucci
Cesar Vallejo3-2Carlos Manucci
Carlos Manucci1-0Cesar Vallejo
Carlos Manucci0-2Cesar Vallejo
Cesar Vallejo2-0Carlos Manucci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carlos Manucci 1531 · Cesar Vallejo 1468

	Carlos Manucci	Draw	Cesar Vallejo
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carlos Manucci (rating 1531 vs 1468).
H2H favours Cesar Vallejo: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carlos Manucci	Cesar Vallejo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	0.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:02 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Manucci 2–0–4 Cesar Vallejo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Peru Copa de la Liga	Cesar Vallejo	2-3 HT 1-2	Carlos Manucci
02/05/26 Peru Liga 2	Cesar Vallejo	2-0 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci
31/08/25 Peru Liga 2	Cesar Vallejo	3-2 HT 2-0	Carlos Manucci
28/07/25 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	1-0 HT 1-0	Cesar Vallejo
15/06/25 Peru Liga 2	Carlos Manucci	0-2 HT 0-0	Cesar Vallejo
27/04/25 Peru Liga 2	Cesar Vallejo	2-0 HT 1-0	Carlos Manucci

Standings · Peru Liga 2 · Liga 2 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Llacuabamba	10	6	2	2	14	4	20
2	Union Comercio	9	5	3	1	9	2	18
3	Pirata FC	10	5	2	3	15	13	17
4	Carlos Manucci	10	5	2	3	10	9	17
5	CD Universidad San Martin	11	4	2	5	16	13	14
6	Club Ada Jaen	11	2	6	3	8	9	12
7	Cesar Vallejo	10	2	4	4	8	10	10
8	Academia Deportiva Cantolao	10	0	3	7	5	22	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carlos Manucci	Cesar Vallejo
Club Ada Jaen	2-0 W	1-1 D
CD Universidad San Martin	0-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Llacuabamba	1-0 W	0-2 L
Alianza Lima	3-1 W	0-0 D
Alianza Atletico	0-1 L	0-2 L
Pirata FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Academia Deportiva Cantolao	4-1 W	1-1 D
Union Comercio	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 5 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Carlos Manucci (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Carlos Manucci

DWWLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	6	8	W
25/07	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
19/07	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
09/07	Atletico Grau Peru Copa de la Liga	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
28/06	Cesar Vallejo Peru Copa de la Liga	2-1	3-2	5	7	W
21/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	1-0	3-1	1	5	W
13/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
24/05	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/05	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	0-0	4-1	9	5	W
09/05	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Cesar Vallejo

WLLDDLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Pirata FC Peru Liga 2	1-1	1-1	13	4	D
01/08	Academia Deportiva Cantolao Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
25/07	Union Comercio Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
28/06	Carlos Manucci Peru Copa de la Liga	1-2	2-3	9	7	L
19/06	Alianza Atletico Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-2	1	4	L
14/06	Alianza Lima Peru Copa de la Liga	0-0	0-0	10	6	D
25/05	Club Ada Jaen Peru Liga 2	1-0	1-1	2	9	D
17/05	CD Universidad San Martin Peru Liga 2	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
09/05	Deportivo Llacuabamba Peru Liga 2	0-1	0-2	3	8	L
02/05	Carlos Manucci Peru Liga 2	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carlos Manucci vs Cesar Vallejo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carlos Manucci win (44%). Probabilities: Carlos Manucci 44%, draw 29%, Cesar Vallejo 27%.

How many goals are expected in Carlos Manucci vs Cesar Vallejo?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Carlos Manucci 1.34 · Cesar Vallejo 0.99), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carlos Manucci vs Cesar Vallejo?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.