Football · Tanzania Premier League · 28/10, 16:30
Prediction: Azam FC vs Mbeya City
Team pages: Azam FC · Mbeya City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.1Total
Azam FC1.68
Mbeya City0.42
1X2
Azam FC
Draw
Mbeya City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 57%
Most likely score
1-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Azam FC
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Mbeya City
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Azam FC
3–2–1
Mbeya City
(6 last)
- Mbeya City0-0Azam FC
- Azam FC2-0Mbeya City
- Azam FC1-1Mbeya City
- Azam FC6-1Mbeya City
- Mbeya City0-1Azam FC
- Mbeya City2-1Azam FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Azam FC 1580 · Mbeya City 1489
| Azam FC | Draw | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 24% | 8% |
| Market | 71% | 19% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Azam FC (rating 1580 vs 1489).
- H2H favours Azam FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Azam FC | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6.5 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Azam FC 3–2–1 Mbeya City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/04/26 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Azam FC |
| 24/09/25 Tanzania Premier League | Azam FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Mbeya City |
| 02/03/25 Tanzania Cup | Azam FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Mbeya City |
| 31/12/22 Tanzania Premier League | Azam FC | 6-1 HT 1-0 | Mbeya City |
| 13/09/22 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Azam FC |
| 10/05/22 Tanzania Premier League | Mbeya City | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Azam FC |
Standings · Tanzania Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba Sports Club | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 4 | 24 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 22 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji FC | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania FC | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| 7 | Namungo FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 12 |
| 8 | Mashujaa FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 9 | Singida Black Stars | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 11 |
| 10 | Mbeya City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| 11 | Coastal Union | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 12 | Geita Gold | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 8 |
| 13 | TRA United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 14 | Pamba SC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 6 |
| 16 | Singida Fountain Gate FC | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 6 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Azam FC | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Geita Gold | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| TRA United | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Polisi Tanzania FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Dodoma Jiji FC | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 0 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Azam FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Azam FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/09 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/08 | Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 20/08 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 15/08 | Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 30/06 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Mbeya City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 09/10 | Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 28/08 | Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 23/08 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 19/08 | Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 08/07 | Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 30/06 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Azam FC vs Mbeya City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Azam FC win (69%). Probabilities: Azam FC 69%, draw 21%, Mbeya City 9%.
How many goals are expected in Azam FC vs Mbeya City?
The model expects 2.1 goals (Azam FC 1.68 · Mbeya City 0.42), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Azam FC vs Mbeya City?
The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.