Football · Tanzania Premier League · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Polisi Tanzania FC vs Geita Gold

Team pages: Polisi Tanzania FC · Geita Gold

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Polisi Tanzania FC1.41

Geita Gold0.93

1X2

47% 30% 24%

Polisi Tanzania FC Draw Geita Gold

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Polisi Tanzania FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWLDDL

Geita Gold 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLLDD

Head-to-head

Polisi Tanzania FC 1–1–4 Geita Gold (6 last)

Polisi Tanzania FC2-0Geita Gold
Geita Gold2-0Polisi Tanzania FC
Geita Gold1-1Polisi Tanzania FC
Polisi Tanzania FC1-2Geita Gold
Polisi Tanzania FC0-1Geita Gold
Geita Gold3-1Polisi Tanzania FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Polisi Tanzania FC 1485 · Geita Gold 1461

	Polisi Tanzania FC	Draw	Geita Gold
Our model	47%	30%	24%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Geita Gold: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Polisi Tanzania FC	Geita Gold
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:24 +9’	1.91	3.00	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Polisi Tanzania FC 1–1–4 Geita Gold

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Tanzania First Division	Polisi Tanzania FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Geita Gold
08/11/25 Tanzania First Division	Geita Gold	2-0	Polisi Tanzania FC
20/01/23 Tanzania Premier League	Geita Gold	1-1 HT 1-0	Polisi Tanzania FC
04/10/22 Tanzania Premier League	Polisi Tanzania FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Geita Gold
25/06/22 Tanzania Premier League	Polisi Tanzania FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Geita Gold
06/02/22 Tanzania Premier League	Geita Gold	3-1 HT 2-0	Polisi Tanzania FC

Standings · Tanzania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Simba Sports Club	9	9	0	0	20	4	27
2	Azam FC	10	7	2	1	19	8	23
3	Young Africans	9	7	1	1	19	5	22
4	JKT Tanzania	11	5	2	4	13	14	17
5	Dodoma Jiji FC	10	4	4	2	8	5	16
6	Namungo FC	10	5	0	5	10	12	15
7	Singida Black Stars	9	4	2	3	15	11	14
8	Coastal Union	11	4	2	5	9	13	14
9	Polisi Tanzania FC	10	3	3	4	12	12	12
10	Mashujaa FC	9	4	0	5	10	15	12
11	Mbeya City	9	3	1	5	8	13	10
12	Geita Gold	10	2	3	5	11	17	9
13	TRA United	9	1	5	3	7	8	8
14	Pamba SC	10	1	3	6	10	16	6
15	Kagera Sugar	10	1	3	6	9	18	6
16	Singida Fountain Gate FC	10	1	3	6	5	14	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Polisi Tanzania FC	Geita Gold
Namungo FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Pamba SC	1-1 D	0-4 L
Kagera Sugar	1-1 D	6-2 W
Mbeya City	2-0 W	1-0 W
Dodoma Jiji FC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Azam FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Polisi Tanzania FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Polisi Tanzania FC

DWWLLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
23/10	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
17/10	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
08/10	Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
12/09	Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
06/09	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	2-3	2-4	4	2	L
25/08	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
20/08	JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
15/08	Azam FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-1	8	3	D

Geita Gold

WLWDLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	TRA United Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
25/10	Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	2	D
16/10	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
08/10	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	0-2	0-4	10	1	L
15/09	Young Africans Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
31/08	Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
28/08	Azam FC Tanzania Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
22/08	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	3-1	6-2	3	2	W
18/08	Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	0	L
14/08	Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Polisi Tanzania FC vs Geita Gold?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Polisi Tanzania FC win (47%). Probabilities: Polisi Tanzania FC 47%, draw 30%, Geita Gold 24%.

How many goals are expected in Polisi Tanzania FC vs Geita Gold?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Polisi Tanzania FC 1.41 · Geita Gold 0.93), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Polisi Tanzania FC vs Geita Gold?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.