Football · Tanzania Premier League · 01/11, 17:00
Prediction: Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar
Team pages: Young Africans · Kagera Sugar
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.41Total
Young Africans2.7
Kagera Sugar0.7
1X2
Young Africans
Draw
Kagera Sugar
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Young Africans
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Kagera Sugar
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Young Africans
5–1–0
Kagera Sugar
(6 last)
- Young Africans4-0Kagera Sugar
- Kagera Sugar0-2Young Africans
- Young Africans1-0Kagera Sugar
- Kagera Sugar0-0Young Africans
- Young Africans5-0Kagera Sugar
- Kagera Sugar0-1Young Africans
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Young Africans 1613 · Kagera Sugar 1442
| Young Africans | Draw | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 85% | 10% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Young Africans (rating 1613 vs 1442).
- H2H favours Young Africans: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Young Africans | Kagera Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.5 / 6.1 | 1.6 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.4 | 3.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Young Africans 5–1–0 Kagera Sugar
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/25 Tanzania Premier League | Young Africans | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Kagera Sugar |
| 29/08/24 Tanzania Premier League | Kagera Sugar | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Young Africans |
| 08/05/24 Tanzania Premier League | Young Africans | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kagera Sugar |
| 02/02/24 Tanzania Premier League | Kagera Sugar | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Young Africans |
| 11/04/23 Tanzania Premier League | Young Africans | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Kagera Sugar |
| 13/11/22 Tanzania Premier League | Kagera Sugar | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Young Africans |
Standings · Tanzania Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba Sports Club | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 25 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | JKT Tanzania | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 17 |
| 5 | Dodoma Jiji FC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Polisi Tanzania FC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 15 |
| 7 | Namungo FC | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| 8 | Singida Black Stars | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 14 |
| 9 | Coastal Union | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| 10 | Mashujaa FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 12 |
| 11 | Mbeya City | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 10 |
| 12 | Geita Gold | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 9 |
| 13 | TRA United | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 14 | Pamba SC | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 6 |
| 15 | Singida Fountain Gate FC | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 6 |
| 16 | Kagera Sugar | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Young Africans | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| Mashujaa FC | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Simba Sports Club | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Geita Gold | 1-0 W | 2-6 L |
| Singida Fountain Gate FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| JKT Tanzania | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Coastal Union | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Young Africans (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Young Africans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 24/10 | TRA United Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 15/09 | Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 20/08 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Namungo FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 30/06 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Kagera Sugar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/10 | JKT Tanzania Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/10 | Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/09 | Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Azam FC Tanzania Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/08 | Mashujaa FC Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League |
1-3 | 2-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/08 | Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 16/08 | Simba Sports Club Tanzania Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Young Africans win (82%). Probabilities: Young Africans 82%, draw 12%, Kagera Sugar 5%.
How many goals are expected in Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
The model expects 3.41 goals (Young Africans 2.7 · Kagera Sugar 0.7), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.