Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 17/10, 17:30
Prediction: Potenza vs Catania
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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Potenza1.53
Catania1.7
1X2
Potenza
Draw
Catania
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Potenza
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Catania
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Potenza
1–3–2
Catania
(6 last)
- Catania1-1Potenza
- Potenza1-1Catania
- Catania1-0Potenza
- Potenza1-2Catania
- Catania0-2Potenza
- Catania0-0Potenza
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Potenza 1576 · Catania 1514
| Potenza | Draw | Catania | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 40% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Potenza (rating 1576 vs 1514).
- H2H favours Catania: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Potenza | Catania | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.6 | 3.2 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Potenza 1–3–2 Catania
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Potenza |
| 14/12/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Catania |
| 07/05/25 Italy Serie C Play-Offs | Catania | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
| 27/04/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Catania |
| 14/12/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
| 10/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Catania | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Potenza |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Bari | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Sorrento Calcio | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Catania | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | 16 |
| 5 | Casertana | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 15 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 9 | 14 |
| 7 | Inter Milan U23 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 13 |
| 8 | Scafatese | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| 9 | Salernitana | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| 10 | AZ Picerno ASD | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| 11 | Cavese | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 12 |
| 12 | Monopoli | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 12 |
| 13 | Foggia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 14 | Casarano | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 11 |
| 15 | AC Savoia 1908 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 10 |
| 16 | Barletta | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 15 | 8 |
| 17 | Team Altamura | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 8 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 22 | 7 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 5 |
| 20 | Crotone | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Potenza | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Picerno ASD | 4-2 W | 4-2 W |
| Barletta | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Monopoli | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Cosenza | 2-1 W | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Potenza (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 21/08 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
Catania
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Crotone Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 27/09 | Casertana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 15/09 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
3-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 07/09 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Atalanta U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Catania?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Catania win (40%). Probabilities: Potenza 33%, draw 26%, Catania 40%.
How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Catania?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Potenza 1.53 · Catania 1.7), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Potenza vs Catania?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.