Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 18/10, 17:30

Prediction: Sorrento Calcio vs Casertana

Team pages: Sorrento Calcio · Casertana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Sorrento Calcio1.22

Casertana1.29

1X2

33% 30% 37%

Sorrento Calcio Draw Casertana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sorrento Calcio 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLLWL

Casertana 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Sorrento Calcio 0–2–4 Casertana (6 last)

Casertana2-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio1-2Casertana
Casertana4-0Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio1-1Casertana
Casertana5-2Sorrento Calcio
Sorrento Calcio1-1Casertana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sorrento Calcio 1524 · Casertana 1522

	Sorrento Calcio	Draw	Casertana
Our model	34%	30%	37%
Market	33%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Casertana: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sorrento Calcio	Casertana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.2	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.00

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.25 ★
2	2.35 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.54

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +6’	2.80	3.00	2.35
09:55 +27’	2.50▼	3.00	2.60▲
23:08 +4’	2.70▲	3.00	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:17 +1’	2.27	3.20	2.90
09:47 +35’	2.59▲	3.27▲	2.59▼
11:07 +17’	2.79▲	3.27	2.42▼
13:40 +52’	2.83▲	3.27	2.39▼
10:23 +6’	2.78▼	3.24▼	2.44▲
20:10 +82’	2.77▼	3.25▲	2.44
06:01 +11’	2.65▼	3.25	2.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sorrento Calcio 0–2–4 Casertana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/03/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	2-0 HT 1-0	Sorrento Calcio
22/11/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-2 HT 0-1	Casertana
16/03/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	4-0 HT 0-0	Sorrento Calcio
04/11/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-1 HT 1-0	Casertana
27/04/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Casertana	5-2 HT 3-1	Sorrento Calcio
23/12/23 Italy Serie C Group C	Sorrento Calcio	1-1 HT 0-1	Casertana

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
2	Bari	9	6	1	2	13	6	19
3	Sorrento Calcio	9	6	0	3	14	10	18
4	Catania	10	5	1	4	18	12	16
5	Casertana	9	4	3	2	15	13	15
6	Monopoli	10	4	3	3	11	9	15
7	Audace Cerignola	9	4	2	3	14	9	14
8	Scafatese	9	3	5	1	15	13	14
9	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	14	12	14
10	Inter Milan U23	9	4	1	4	18	17	13
11	AZ Picerno ASD	9	4	0	5	17	17	12
12	Cavese	9	3	3	3	15	15	12
13	Foggia	9	3	2	4	9	10	11
14	Casarano	9	3	2	4	10	13	11
15	AC Savoia 1908	9	2	4	3	11	12	10
16	Barletta	9	1	5	3	12	15	8
17	Team Altamura	9	2	2	5	4	13	8
18	Giugliano	9	2	1	6	12	22	7
19	Cosenza	9	1	2	6	7	19	5
20	Crotone	9	1	3	5	10	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sorrento Calcio	Casertana
Scafatese	2-3 L	2-2 D
Cavese	3-2 W	0-2 L
Giugliano	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sorrento Calcio (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sorrento Calcio

DWWWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-3	2-3	5	2	L
03/10	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
27/09	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
19/09	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	0	3	L
15/09	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	3-2	6	6	W
12/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
05/09	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
29/08	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
24/08	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
26/04	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Casertana

DDWDWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
03/10	Cavese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/09	Catania Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
19/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
15/09	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-2	4	3	W
06/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
29/08	AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
22/08	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-3	9	5	D
26/04	Giugliano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sorrento Calcio vs Casertana?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Casertana win (37%). Probabilities: Sorrento Calcio 33%, draw 30%, Casertana 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sorrento Calcio vs Casertana?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Sorrento Calcio 1.22 · Casertana 1.29), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sorrento Calcio vs Casertana?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.