Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 02/08, 22:00

Prediction: CS Uruguay de Coronado vs AD Carmelita

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

CS Uruguay de Coronado1.67

AD Carmelita1.06

1X2

51% 26% 23%

CS Uruguay de Coronado Draw AD Carmelita

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CS Uruguay de Coronado 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLWLLD

AD Carmelita 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLWLDD

Head-to-head

CS Uruguay de Coronado 3–2–1 AD Carmelita (6 last)

CS Uruguay de Coronado3-0AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita0-1CS Uruguay de Coronado
AD Carmelita1-1CS Uruguay de Coronado
CS Uruguay de Coronado2-1AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita1-0CS Uruguay de Coronado
CS Uruguay de Coronado2-2AD Carmelita

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CS Uruguay de Coronado 1502 · AD Carmelita 1448

	CS Uruguay de Coronado	Draw	AD Carmelita
Our model	50%	27%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CS Uruguay de Coronado (rating 1502 vs 1448).
H2H favours CS Uruguay de Coronado: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CS Uruguay de Coronado	AD Carmelita
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.40

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +2’	1.75	3.40	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CS Uruguay de Coronado 3–2–1 AD Carmelita

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	CS Uruguay de Coronado	3-0 HT 3-0	AD Carmelita
07/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	0-1 HT 0-0	CS Uruguay de Coronado
24/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1 HT 1-1	CS Uruguay de Coronado
07/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	CS Uruguay de Coronado	2-1 HT 2-1	AD Carmelita
21/04/16 Costa Rica Primera Division	AD Carmelita	1-0 HT 1-0	CS Uruguay de Coronado
26/02/16 Costa Rica Primera Division	CS Uruguay de Coronado	2-2 HT 1-2	AD Carmelita

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cariari Pococi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Carmelita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santa Ana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Aserri	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Uruguay de Coronado	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guadalupe FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CS Uruguay de Coronado	AD Carmelita
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-3 L	1-0 W
Cariari Pococi	1-0 W	1-2 L
Escorpiones de Belen FC	0-2 L	2-0 W
Santa Ana	3-5 L	1-2 L
FC Aserri	0-1 L	0-0 D
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AD Carmelita (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CS Uruguay de Coronado

WDLLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
19/04	Quepos Cambute FC Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-5	4	6	L
07/04	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-3	8	1	L
29/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
26/03	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-2	0	4	L
21/03	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	3-0	3-0	3	6	W
15/03	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-4	3-5	8	6	L
10/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	7	L
04/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
28/02	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	3-1	1	7	W

AD Carmelita

LDLLWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
21/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	0-3	9	6	L
16/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
08/03	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
25/02	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
19/02	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/02	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	10	8	D
12/02	Deportivo Saprissa Costa Rica Cup	1-3	2-4	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CS Uruguay de Coronado vs AD Carmelita?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CS Uruguay de Coronado win (51%). Probabilities: CS Uruguay de Coronado 51%, draw 26%, AD Carmelita 23%.

How many goals are expected in CS Uruguay de Coronado vs AD Carmelita?

The model expects 2.73 goals (CS Uruguay de Coronado 1.67 · AD Carmelita 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CS Uruguay de Coronado vs AD Carmelita?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.