Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 09/08, 19:00

Prediction: Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita

Team pages: Santa Ana · AD Carmelita

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Santa Ana1.71

AD Carmelita1.08

1X2

51% 25% 23%

Santa Ana Draw AD Carmelita

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Ana 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLWLWW

AD Carmelita 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLWLDDD

Head-to-head

Santa Ana 2–2–2 AD Carmelita (6 last)

AD Carmelita1-2Santa Ana
AD Carmelita2-0Santa Ana
Santa Ana1-1AD Carmelita
Santa Ana1-0AD Carmelita
AD Carmelita3-2Santa Ana
AD Carmelita1-1Santa Ana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Ana 1504 · AD Carmelita 1486

	Santa Ana	Draw	AD Carmelita
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Ana	AD Carmelita
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.8	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
23:23	1.73	3.60	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Ana 2–2–2 AD Carmelita

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-2 HT 1-1	Santa Ana
16/11/25 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	2-0 HT 1-0	Santa Ana
29/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	1-1 HT 0-1	AD Carmelita
20/03/21 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	1-0	AD Carmelita
06/02/21 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	3-2 HT 1-1	Santa Ana
04/11/20 Costa Rica Segunda	AD Carmelita	1-1	Santa Ana

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guadalupe FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
2	Santa Ana	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
3	AD Carmelita	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
3	CS Uruguay de Coronado	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Cariari Pococi	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
8	FC Aserri	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Ana	AD Carmelita
FC Aserri	1-0 W	0-0 D
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	1-2 L	1-1 D
CS Uruguay de Coronado	5-3 W	2-2 D
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-2 L	1-0 W
Cariari Pococi	1-1 D	1-2 L
Escorpiones de Belen FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Ana

DDWLDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
27/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	3-2	7	5	W
22/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
15/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	4-2	5-3	6	6	W
13/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
10/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	10	8	D
28/02	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-3	1-3	1	4	L
25/02	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
13/02	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/02	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	7	5	D

AD Carmelita

DLLWLWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
31/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
25/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
21/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-3	0-3	9	6	L
16/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
08/03	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
25/02	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
19/02	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
15/02	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	10	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Ana win (51%). Probabilities: Santa Ana 51%, draw 25%, AD Carmelita 23%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Santa Ana 1.71 · AD Carmelita 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Ana vs AD Carmelita?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.