Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 01/08, 21:00

Prediction: Santa Ana vs FC Aserri

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Santa Ana1.97

FC Aserri1.41

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Santa Ana Draw FC Aserri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Santa Ana 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLDLWLW

FC Aserri 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLDLD

Head-to-head

Santa Ana 4–1–1 FC Aserri (6 last)

Santa Ana3-2FC Aserri
FC Aserri1-1Santa Ana
FC Aserri1-3Santa Ana
Santa Ana1-2FC Aserri
FC Aserri0-5Santa Ana
Santa Ana2-1FC Aserri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Santa Ana 1497 · FC Aserri 1462

	Santa Ana	Draw	FC Aserri
Our model	50%	24%	27%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Santa Ana: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Santa Ana	FC Aserri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	0.7 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.3	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.5	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.58 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +12’	2.05	3.40	3.00
12:31 +7’	1.85▼	3.50▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:27	1.83	3.39	3.52
20:15	1.84▲	3.45▲	3.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Santa Ana 4–1–1 FC Aserri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Aserri
13/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	1-1 HT 0-0	Santa Ana
30/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	1-3 HT 0-1	Santa Ana
16/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Aserri
08/03/24 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	0-5 HT 0-2	Santa Ana
26/01/24 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Aserri

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cariari Pococi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AD Carmelita	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santa Ana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Aserri	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CS Uruguay de Coronado	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Futbol Consultants Desamparados	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guadalupe FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Santa Ana	FC Aserri
Futbol Consultants Desamparados	1-2 L	2-6 L
CS Uruguay de Coronado	5-3 W	1-0 W
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-2 L	0-0 D
Cariari Pococi	1-1 D	2-2 D
Escorpiones de Belen FC	1-3 L	0-8 L
AD Carmelita	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Santa Ana (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Santa Ana

LDDWLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	3-2	7	5	W
22/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
15/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	4-2	5-3	6	6	W
13/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-2	3	4	L
10/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	10	8	D
28/02	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-3	1-3	1	4	L
25/02	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
13/02	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/02	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
02/02	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-4	5	6	L

FC Aserri

WLDWLDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/04	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
04/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-5	0-8	4	0	L
31/03	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
27/03	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
19/03	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
13/03	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	1-4	2-6	6	1	L
10/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
03/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
22/02	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
19/02	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Santa Ana vs FC Aserri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Santa Ana win (49%). Probabilities: Santa Ana 49%, draw 25%, FC Aserri 26%.

How many goals are expected in Santa Ana vs FC Aserri?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Santa Ana 1.97 · FC Aserri 1.41), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Santa Ana vs FC Aserri?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.