Football · Costa Rica Segunda · 20/09, 19:00

Prediction: FC Aserri vs Santa Ana

Team pages: FC Aserri · Santa Ana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

FC Aserri1.48

Santa Ana1.43

1X2

38% 27% 35%

FC Aserri Draw Santa Ana

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Aserri 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Santa Ana 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Aserri 1–1–4 Santa Ana (6 last)

Santa Ana1-0FC Aserri
Santa Ana3-2FC Aserri
FC Aserri1-1Santa Ana
FC Aserri1-3Santa Ana
Santa Ana1-2FC Aserri
FC Aserri0-5Santa Ana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Aserri 1498 · Santa Ana 1555

	FC Aserri	Draw	Santa Ana
Our model	38%	27%	35%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santa Ana (rating 1498 vs 1555).
H2H favours Santa Ana: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Aserri	Santa Ana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.30

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +6’	2.38	3.30	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Aserri 1–1–4 Santa Ana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Aserri
27/03/26 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	3-2 HT 2-2	FC Aserri
13/02/26 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	1-1 HT 0-0	Santa Ana
30/10/25 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	1-3 HT 0-1	Santa Ana
16/09/25 Costa Rica Segunda	Santa Ana	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Aserri
08/03/24 Costa Rica Segunda	FC Aserri	0-5 HT 0-2	Santa Ana

Standings · Costa Rica Segunda · Liga de Ascenso, Apertura 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santa Ana	6	5	0	1	11	7	15
2	Pitbulls Santa Barbara	6	4	2	0	12	7	14
3	FC Aserri	7	3	2	2	7	7	11
4	AD Carmelita	8	2	3	3	15	11	9
5	Cariari Pococi	5	2	3	0	7	5	9
6	CS Uruguay de Coronado	8	2	1	5	6	15	7
7	Guadalupe FC	7	1	2	4	8	12	5
8	FC Moravia	7	1	1	5	8	10	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Aserri	Santa Ana
CS Uruguay de Coronado	1-0 W	3-1 W
AD Carmelita	2-1 W	3-2 W
Pitbulls Santa Barbara	1-1 D	0-2 L
Guadalupe FC	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Aserri (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Aserri

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
06/09	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
28/08	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
22/08	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
01/08	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
12/04	Cariari Pococi Costa Rica Segunda	2-1	2-2	3	2	D
04/04	Escorpiones de Belen FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-5	0-8	4	0	L
31/03	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	0-0	11	2	D
27/03	Santa Ana Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	2-3	4	5	L

Santa Ana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Guadalupe FC Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
05/09	Futbol Consultants Desamparados Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
01/09	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
23/08	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	1-0	3-1	2	5	W
09/08	AD Carmelita Costa Rica Segunda	1-2	3-2	9	6	W
01/08	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
27/03	FC Aserri Costa Rica Segunda	2-2	3-2	7	5	W
22/03	FC Moravia Costa Rica Segunda	0-1	1-2	2	5	L
15/03	CS Uruguay de Coronado Costa Rica Segunda	4-2	5-3	6	6	W
13/03	Pitbulls Santa Barbara Costa Rica Segunda	0-0	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Aserri vs Santa Ana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Aserri win (38%). Probabilities: FC Aserri 38%, draw 27%, Santa Ana 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Aserri vs Santa Ana?

The model expects 2.91 goals (FC Aserri 1.48 · Santa Ana 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Aserri vs Santa Ana?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.