Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 23/08, 12:00

Prediction: IF Gnistan (W) vs Aland United (W)

Team pages: IF Gnistan (W) · Aland United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

IF Gnistan (W)0.97

Aland United (W)2.63

1X2

11% 17% 72%

IF Gnistan (W) Draw Aland United (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

IF Gnistan (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLDLLW

Aland United (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

IF Gnistan (W) 0–2 Aland United (W) (2 last)

IF Gnistan (W)1-4Aland United (W)
Aland United (W)6-1IF Gnistan (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Gnistan (W) 1447 · Aland United (W) 1591

	IF Gnistan (W)	Draw	Aland United (W)
Our model	11%	17%	72%
Market	11%	16%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1447 vs 1591).
H2H favours Aland United (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Gnistan (W)	Aland United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	2.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.6	3.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.50

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.93

2 (-1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 01:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 8.00▼	Bet365 8.00
X	6.00 → 5.50▼	Pinn 5.63
2	1.20 → 1.25▲	Pinn 1.29 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +3’	9.00	6.00	1.20
00:08 +2’	7.50▼	5.50▼	1.27▲
01:05 +7’	8.00▲	5.50	1.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:11 +2’	6.09	5.45	1.28
06:02 +2’	6.12▲	5.48▲	1.28▼
11:05 +1’	6.31▲	5.63▲	1.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan (W) 0–0–2 Aland United (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	IF Gnistan (W)	1-4 HT 0-3	Aland United (W)
28/03/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Aland United (W)	6-1 HT 2-1	IF Gnistan (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	17	14	1	2	44	14	43
2	Aland United (W)	16	11	1	4	46	20	34
3	KuPS (W)	17	11	1	5	36	25	34
4	HPS (W)	17	8	4	5	26	22	28
5	Ilves (W)	17	7	1	9	29	33	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	16	5	1	10	24	36	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Gnistan (W)	Aland United (W)
Ilves (W)	2-1 W	3-0 W
HJK (W)	1-3 L	2-3 L
KuPS (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
VIFK (W)	1-0 W	6-1 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	3-0 W	4-1 W
HPS (W)	0-4 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IF Gnistan (W)

LLLWWLDLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	4	1	W
12/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	1	2	L
25/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
13/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
31/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-4	3	4	L
22/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-2	2	2	L

Aland United (W)

WWLDWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
08/08	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
25/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	6-1	9	0	W
18/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	3-1	2	6	W
12/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	4-0	4-1	5	4	W
04/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	7	0	W
28/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
12/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
31/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	3-0	4-1	3	4	W
21/05	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan (W) vs Aland United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Aland United (W) win (72%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan (W) 11%, draw 17%, Aland United (W) 72%.

How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model expects 3.6 goals (IF Gnistan (W) 0.97 · Aland United (W) 2.63), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Gnistan (W) vs Aland United (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.