Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 29/08, 18:00

Prediction: HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)

Team pages: HPS (W) · Ilves (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

HPS (W)2.11

Ilves (W)1.11

1X2

60% 22% 19%

HPS (W) Draw Ilves (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

HPS (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWDLLWLD

Ilves (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWDWLLL

Head-to-head

HPS (W) 3–1–2 Ilves (W) (6 last)

HPS (W)1-2Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)1-0HPS (W)
HPS (W)1-0Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)0-2HPS (W)
Ilves (W)0-1HPS (W)
HPS (W)1-1Ilves (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS (W) 1529 · Ilves (W) 1494

	HPS (W)	Draw	Ilves (W)
Our model	59%	22%	18%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HPS (W): 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS (W)	Ilves (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.1	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	1.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:38 +38’	1.50	4.20	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS (W) 3–1–2 Ilves (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
31/08/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ilves (W)
09/06/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
26/08/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
10/06/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	17	14	1	2	44	14	43
2	Aland United (W)	17	12	1	4	49	22	37
3	KuPS (W)	17	11	1	5	36	25	34
4	HPS (W)	17	8	4	5	26	22	28
5	Ilves (W)	17	7	1	9	29	33	22
6	IF Gnistan (W)	17	5	1	11	26	39	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS (W)	Ilves (W)
HJK (W)	3-3 D	1-3 L
Aland United (W)	1-2 L	0-3 L
KuPS (W)	3-2 W	1-2 L
VIFK (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
IF Gnistan (W)	4-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: HPS (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HPS (W)

WWDWDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
16/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
08/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
25/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
19/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
12/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
04/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
28/06	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
13/06	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
29/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-2	1	6	W

Ilves (W)

WWLLWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-2	6	1	L
08/08	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
25/07	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
27/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
14/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
31/05	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS (W) win (60%). Probabilities: HPS (W) 60%, draw 22%, Ilves (W) 19%.

How many goals are expected in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model expects 3.22 goals (HPS (W) 2.11 · Ilves (W) 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.