Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 29/08, 18:00
Prediction: HJK (W) vs Aland United (W)
Team pages: HJK (W) · Aland United (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.88Total
HJK (W)2.48
Aland United (W)1.39
1X2
HJK (W)
Draw
Aland United (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
HJK (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Aland United (W)
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
HJK (W)
5–1–0
Aland United (W)
(6 last)
- Aland United (W)2-3HJK (W)
- HJK (W)3-2Aland United (W)
- HJK (W)4-2Aland United (W)
- Aland United (W)2-2HJK (W)
- HJK (W)3-1Aland United (W)
- HJK (W)6-1Aland United (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · HJK (W) 1625 · Aland United (W) 1555
| HJK (W) | Draw | Aland United (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.88 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK (W) (rating 1625 vs 1555).
- H2H favours HJK (W): 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| HJK (W) | Aland United (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 0.8 | 2.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.3 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.6 | 3.2 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK (W) 5–1–0 Aland United (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | HJK (W) |
| 02/04/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 24/01/26 Finland Cup Women | HJK (W) | 4-2 HT 1-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 03/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 2-2 HT 1-1 | HJK (W) |
| 21/09/25 Finland Cup Women | HJK (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 06/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | HJK (W) | 6-1 HT 2-0 | Aland United (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · Kansallinen Liiga, Women 2026, Championship Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 17 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 44 | 14 | 43 |
| 2 | Aland United (W) | 17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 49 | 22 | 37 |
| 3 | KuPS (W) | 17 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 36 | 25 | 34 |
| 4 | HPS (W) | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 28 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 33 | 22 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 17 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 39 | 16 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | HJK (W) | Aland United (W) |
|---|---|---|
| HPS (W) | 3-3 D | 2-1 W |
| KuPS (W) | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 3-1 W | 3-2 W |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 2-0 W | 4-1 W |
| Ilves (W) | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| VIFK (W) | 4-0 W | 6-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 6 W 0 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
HJK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/08 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 17/08 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 12/08 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 27/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 12/06 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 29/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
Aland United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 6-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 28/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in HJK (W) vs Aland United (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK (W) win (60%). Probabilities: HJK (W) 60%, draw 21%, Aland United (W) 19%.
How many goals are expected in HJK (W) vs Aland United (W)?
The model expects 3.88 goals (HJK (W) 2.48 · Aland United (W) 1.39), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in HJK (W) vs Aland United (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.